应用最大熵模型对水松潜在适生区的预测  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Glyptostrobus pensilis Using Maximum Entropy Model

作　　者：李涛[1] 陈彩虹[1] 罗梦萍 佘济云[1] Li Tao;Chen Caihong;Luo Mengping;She Jiyun(Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学,长沙410004

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2024年第11期83-90,共8页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40875)。

摘　　要：为了预测气候变化下水松(Glyptostrobus pensilis)潜在分布的变化,筛选107个物种分布点和12个环境因子数据,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟当代和2041—2060、2081—2100年SSPs126、SSPs245和SSPs5853种未来气候情景我国水松潜在分布格局,并分析影响水松分布的主导环境因子。结果表明:(1)模型精度较高,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值为0.971。影响物种分布的主导环境因子是最干季度降水量、3月太阳辐射、8月太阳辐射和海拔。(2)当前水松适生区主要分布于东南部沿海地区,总适生区面积为170.66万km^(2),其中,高适生区面积约7.4万km^(2)。(3)未来不同气候情景,水松的适生区相较于当代有不同程度的增加,并有向高纬度、高海拔扩张趋势,但位于保护地内的适生区较少。水松主要适生区分布于东南沿海地区,降水和光照是影响水松分布的主要因素。一定程度的气候变暖对水松分布有积极影响。可在种群集中地建立保护区,制定保护策略。To predict the changes in the potential distribution of Glyptostrobus pensilis under climate change,this study selected 107 species distribution points and data from 12 environmental factors.Using the Maximum Entropy Model(Maxent),we modeled the current distribution and potential distribution patterns for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three future climate scenarios:SSPs126,SSPs245,and SSPs585 in China,while also analyzing the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of G.pensilis.The results indicated the following:(1)The model demonstrated high accuracy,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)value of 0.971.The dominant environmental factors affecting species distribution were the precipitation in the driest quarter,solar radiation in March,solar radiation in August,and elevation.(2)The current suitable habitat for G.pensilis is primarily distributed along the southeastern coastal region,with an overall suitable habitat area of 1.7066 million km^(2),of which the area of high suitability is approximately 74000 km^(2).(3)Under different future climate scenarios,the suitable habitat for G.pensilis is expected to increase to varying extents compared to the present,with a trend towards expansion in higher latitudes and elevations.However,areas of suitable habitat within protected areas are limited.The main suitable habitats for G.pensilis are concentrated in the southeastern coastal region,where precipitation and sunlight are the key factors influencing its distribution.A certain degree of climate warming has a positive impact on the distribution of G.pensilis.It is recommended to establish protected areas in regions of population concentration and to develop conservation strategies.

关 键 词：水松 最大熵模型 潜在适生区 气候变化 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]