“如何可能”与“实际如何”:生态学模型解释的实在性分析  

"How Possibly"and"How Actually":Realistic Analysis of Ecological Model Explanation

作　　者：江学如 JIANG Xueru(School of Marxism,Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Beijing,100876)

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学马克思主义学院,北京100876

出　　处：《自然辩证法通讯》2024年第10期26-32,共7页Journal of Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“生态学范式争论的哲学研究”(项目编号:16ZDA112)。

摘　　要：科学解释一直以来都是科学哲学中的重要论题。在生态学研究中,由于生态学对象的复杂性、进化性、开放性和历史性等特征,生态学缺乏经典的亨普尔解释模型所诉诸的普遍定律,人们常常借助于理想化的数学模型来解释复杂的目标系统。区分科学模型的表征精度和动态精度两种精度标准,发现生态学模型解释遵循历时性的动态模式,从最初的简单性模型不断地自我完善,最终实现从“如何可能”到“实际如何”的解释机制。生态学系统中复杂的行为是由内部原因和外部原因等多重因素共同作用所涌现出来的动态属性。单一的模型不可能实现完全真实的解释,走向多元主义的模型解释是可能的,也是必要的。Scientific explanation has always been one of the important topics of philosophy of science.In ecological research,due to the complexity,evolution,openness and historicity of ecological objects,ecology lacks the universal laws appealed by the classical Hempel interpretation model.People often use idealized mathematical models to explain complex target systems.Distinguishing between the two accuracy standards of the representation accuracy and the dynamic accuracy of the scientific model,it is found that the interpretation of the ecological model follows a diachronic dynamic pattern,continuously improves itself from the initial simplicity model,and finally realizes the interpretation mechanism from"how possible explain"to"how actually explain".The complex behavior in the ecological system is a dynamic property emerging from multiple factors such as internal and external reasons.It is impossible for a single model to achieve a completely true explanation,and it is possible and necessary to move towards a pluralistic model explanation.

关 键 词：生态学 模型解释 实在性 多元主义 

分 类 号：N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学] Q14[生物学—生态学]