气候变化下中国珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属适生区模拟及GAP分析  

Simulation and GAP analysis of suitable areas of rare and endangered Parakmeria in China under climate change

作　　者：唐继敏 殷晓洁 李干 高伟杰 黎宏琴 TANG Ji-min;YIN Xiao-jie;LI Gan;GAO Wei-jie;LI Hong-qin(College of Forestry,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学林学院,昆明650224

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2024年第9期2120-2129,共10页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31700467);云南省基础研究专项(202401AT070294);云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0251)。

摘　　要：【目的】为明晰中国珍稀濒危植物拟单性木兰属地理分布对气候变化的响应,为其管理和保护提供参考。【方法】基于拟单性木兰属常绿乔木的地理分布信息及38个环境变量数据,利用R语言优化的最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测各物种适生区变化趋势,分析物种在自然保护区内的保护空缺(GAP)。【结果】MaxEnt优化预测后,各树种的AUC值均大于0.9,说明模型预测准确。中国珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属主要分布在秦岭—淮河以南地区。影响各拟单性木兰属分布的主导环境因子主要为气温和降水,其中影响峨眉拟单性木兰的主要因子为最干月降水量,最适范围为15~210 mm,同时还受海拔因素影响;影响光叶拟单性木兰生长的最主要因子为温度年较差,最适范围为9~26℃;乐东拟单性木兰生长的最主要影响因子为昼夜温差月均值,其适宜范围为6~8℃;云南拟单性木兰生长主要受到最干季均温影响,适宜范围在7~14℃,同时还受土壤因素影响。2061—2080年气候情景下,峨眉拟单性木兰和光叶拟单性木兰总适生区面积缩减11%~33%,乐东拟单性木兰和云南拟单性木兰总适生区面积分别扩增15%~28%,各树种迁移距离54~296 km。各拟单性木兰属常绿乔木在保护空缺面积较大,基准期及未来气候情景下,自然保护区内物种总适生区和高适生区面积分别在6%和11%以下。【结论】珍稀濒危拟单性木兰属分布最易受到最干月降水量、温度年较差、昼夜温差月均值等因素影响。在基准期时,各拟单性木兰属乔木高适生区面积分布较为零散。未来,随着气候变暖,峨眉拟单性木兰和光叶拟单性木兰高适生区面积缩减29%~51%;乐东拟单性木兰和云南拟单性木兰高适生区面积扩增21%~49%。未来自然保护区内各拟单性木兰的总适生区和高适生区面积在2%以内波动。建议在西南、华中、华东及华南等适生热度值高地区,增加自然保护[Objective]The study aimed at clarifying the response of the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Parakmeria to cli-mate change in China,and to provide reference for its management and protection.[Method]Based on the geographic distribution information and 38 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)optimized by R language was used to predict the change trend of the suitable area of each species,and the distribution protection GAP of species in nature reserves was analyzed.[Result]After MaxEnt opti-mized prediction,the AUC value of each species was greater than O.9,indicating that the model was accurate.In China,the rare and endan-gered Parakmeria were mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains to the south of the Huaihe River.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Parakmeria were temperature and precipitation,and the driest month precipitation was the main factor affecting the distri-bution of Parakmeria omeiensis,and the optimal range was 15-210 mm,which was also affected by altitude.The most important factor affect-ing the growth of P.nitida was the annual temperature difference,and the optimum range was 9-26 C.The most important factor affecting the growth of P.lotungensis was the monthly mean value of difference temperature between day and night,and its suitable range was 6-8 C.The growth of P.yunnanensis was mainly affected by the average temperature in the driest season,and the suitable range was 7-14 C,which was also affected by soil factors.Under the climate scenario from 2061 to 2080,the total habitat area of P.omeiensis and P.nitida decreased by about 11%-33%,and the total habitat area of P.lotungensis and P.yunnanensis increased by about 15%-28%.The migration distance of each species was about 54-296 km.Under the base period and the future climate scenario,the total suitable area and high suitable area of species in the nature reserve were below 6%and 11%respectively.[Conclusion]The distribution of rare and endangered Parakmeria was most susceptible t

关 键 词：珍稀濒危 拟单性木兰属 气候变化 优化MaxEnt模型 保护空缺 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]