“百年未有之大变局”与“动荡变革期”的学理阐释  

Navigating Global Transformation:A Theoretical Analysis of Unprecedented Changes and Strategic Implications in the 21st Century

作　　者：孙西辉[1,2] 于春泉 SUN Xihui;YU Chunquan(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100007,China;School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,北京100007 [2]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《河北师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第6期146-156,共11页Journal of Hebei Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心2024年度重点项目“社会科学理论建构视角下人类命运共同体思想的国际关系理论化研究”(项目编号:2024XYZD13)。

摘　　要：战略问题事关党和国家的前途命运,准确的战略判断有助于推动党和国家各项事业的发展。中国共产党向来重视战略认知和战略判断,认为当前百年未有之大变局加速演进,世界进入新的动荡变革期,我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。这是对当下国际形势整体特征和性质的战略论断,也指出中国发展面临新的战略机遇与风险挑战。对相关战略论断进行学理化研究,有助于更好地把握战略机遇和应对各种风险挑战,推动中国和世界共同发展,为解决全人类共同面临的问题与构建人类命运共同体提供更多更好的中国智慧、中国方案和中国力量。Strategic considerations are crucial to the future and destiny of the Party and the nation,and accurate strategic judgments are essential for advancing their development.The Communist Party of China(CPC)has consistently emphasized the importance of strategic awareness and judgment.It recognizes that the world is experiencing unprecedented changes not seen in a century,characterized by accelerated evolution and a new period of turbulence and transformation.Concurrently,China’s development is at a juncture where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges,marked by increased uncertainties and unpredictable factors.This perspective reflects a strategic assessment of the fundamental nature and characteristics of the current international situation and highlights that China’s development is navigating new strategic opportunities,risks,and challenges.Theoretical research into these strategic judgments can enhance our ability to seize opportunities,mitigate risks,and address challenges,thereby fostering China’s and the world’s common development.Furthermore,it aims to contribute Chinese wisdom,solutions,and strength to addressing shared global challenges and building a community with a shared future for humanity.

关 键 词：“百年未有之大变局” “动荡变革期” 战略机遇与风险挑战 

分 类 号：D61[政治法律—政治学] D820[政治法律—中外政治制度] A13[哲学宗教—马克思主义哲学]