The Dynamics and Future Scenarios of the Animal Husbandry System in Khutag-Undur from 2015 to 2050  

2015-2050年Khutag-Undur畜牧业系统动态与未来情景

作　　者：XU Zengrang XIAN Yunfeng ZOU Xiuping 徐增让;鲜运峰;邹秀萍(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190)

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]Institutes of Science and Development,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2024年第5期1125-1133,共9页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFE0119200);The National Natural Science Foundation of China(32161143025,42371283);The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP),China(2019QZKK0603)。

摘　　要：Under the conditions of climate warming,grassland degradation,frequent sandstorms,and fast increases in livestock numbers,coordinating animal husbandry and ecological protection is an important issue facing Mongolia.Using Khutag-Undur as an example,this study explores the dynamic process,future scenarios,and optimization strategies of the animal husbandry system in a typical Soum of Mongolia from 2015 to 2050 under three future climate socioeconomic scenarios of CMIP 6:SSP1-RCP2.6,SSP2-RCP4.5,and SSP5-RCP8.5.First,the animal husbandry system was deconstructed into three subsystems:grassland primary production,livestock secondary production,and herder consumption.Based on the negative feedback mechanism of forage-livestock balance,a system dynamics model for the Khutag-Undur Soum animal husbandry system was developed.This model integrates spatial data such as land cover and NPP,as well as statistical data on livestock,herder income and expenditures,sample plot surveys,and herder questionnaires.The model was used to simulate the historical changes(2015-2022)in forage production and carrying capacity,livestock stock,and livestock output of Khutag-Undur,and then to forecast the future scenarios of those variables for 2022-2050.Second,the most suitable future scenario for the Soum was identified by comparing the three future scenarios using a pastural system sustainability evaluation method.Finally,based on three indicators of livestock numbers,a two-step livestock reduction strategy was proposed.The main conclusions are that the rapid growth of livestock numbers in Khutag-Undur places considerable pressure on the grassland,and the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario is the most suitable future scenario for the Soum.However,even in this suitable scenario,grassland overloading remains evident.The continuous implementation of a livestock reduction strategy is recommended to maintain the sustainable development of animal husbandry and grassland conservation.在气候变暖、草原退化、沙尘暴频发以及牲畜数量快速增长的背景下,如何协调畜牧业与生态保护成为蒙古国面临的重要挑战。本研究探讨了2015-2050年在三种未来气候社会经济情景(CMIP6 SSP1-RCP2.6、SSP2-RCP4.5、SSP5-RCP8.5)下,Khutag-Undur苏木畜牧系统的动态过程、未来情景及优化策略。首先,畜牧业系统被解构为三个子系统:草地初级生产、牲畜次级生产和牧民消费。基于草畜平衡的负反馈机制,构建了Khutag-Undur苏木畜牧业系统动力学模型。该模型集成了草地覆盖、净初级生产力(NPP)空间数据,牲畜存栏出栏、牧民收支统计数据及样方和问卷调查等多元数据,模拟了2015-2022年现状饲草产量及承载能力、牲畜存栏出栏量的动态变化,并预估了2022-2050年这些变量的未来情景。其次,提出了畜牧业系统可持续性评价方法,并对三种未来情景进行比较分析,识别了未来较优的畜牧业发展情景。最后,基于三条牲畜数量线,提出了分两步走持续减畜的策略。主要结论:Khutag-Undur牲畜数量的快速增长对脆弱草地生态系统造成了较大压力。SSP1-RCP2.6情景虽为未来较优的畜牧业情景,但即便在该情景下草原超载依然严重。建议在牧民生计多元化前提下持续减畜,以促使畜牧业发展与草原保护的协同。

关 键 词：animal husbandry system grassland ecosystem forage-livestock balance system dynamics SSPRCP scenario Mongolia 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]