我国新兴产业的演化增长范式与实践研究  

Research on the Evolutionary Growth Paradigm and Practice of China's Emerging Industries

作　　者：凌永辉 Ling Yong-hui

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江产业发展研究院

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第11期43-52,共10页Economist

摘　　要：新兴产业在我国现代化产业体系中占据关键地位,也是发展新质生产力的重要产业支撑。适用于传统产业的主流增长分析范式不能简单应用于在技术和发展阶段具有特殊性的新兴产业发展的研究。实际上,新兴产业的生命周期演化由主导技术演化、市场规模和结构演化两条逻辑主线共同推动。为此,基于演化增长理论,提出一个具有一般性和综合性的理论分析框架,从技术、偏好和制度角度揭示了我国新兴产业演化增长的理论范式与实践。其基本逻辑是,首先客观描述了新兴产业的演化增长过程与阶段性特征,进而抽象性地识别出背后的“技术—偏好—制度”这一演化增长范式,然后基于软件产业的演化增长实践,经验性地分析了上述范式在软件产业的市场培育和产业化过程中的具体作用。从演化增长视角看,进一步发展壮大新兴产业,需要从抓住产业技术变革趋势、营造良好市场环境、加大产业政策支持力度等方面,着力打通技术滞后型、偏好错配型、制度缺失型三类堵点卡点。Emerging industries occupy a key position in China's modernized industrial system,and are also an important industrial support for the development of new quality productive forces.However,the mainstream growth analysis paradigm appli⁃cable to traditional industries cannot be simply applied to the study of emerging industries,which have special characteristics in terms of technology and development stage.In fact,the life cycle evolution of emerging industries is driven by two logical threads:the evolution of dominant technology and the evolution of market size and structure.Based on the theory of evolutionary growth,this paper proposes a theoretical analytical framework with generality and comprehensiveness to reveal the theoretical paradigm and practice of evolutionary growth of emerging industries in China from the perspectives of technology,preference and system.Therefore,this paper objectively describes the evolutionary growth process and stage characteristics of emerging indus⁃tries,and then abstractly identifies the"technology-preference-system"paradigm.In addition,this paper empirically analyzes the specific role of the above paradigm in the process of market cultivation and industrialization of the software industry.From the perspective of evolutionary growth,further development and expansion of emerging industries require efforts to remove three types of bottlenecks and obstacles,namely,technology lag,preference mismatch,and lack of system,in terms of grasping the trend of industrial technological change,creating a favorable market environment,and strengthening the support of industrial policy.

关 键 词：新兴产业 演化增长范式 产业生命周期 软件产业 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]