贸易政策冲击下的跨国供应链断裂与重构研究  

Global Supply Chain Disruption and Restructuring under Trade Policy Shocks

作　　者：丁浩员 董文娟 余心玎[2] DING Haoyuan;DONG Wenjuan;YU Xinding(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学商学院,邮政编码:200433 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,邮政编码:100029

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第8期95-113,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173082,72173021)的资助。

摘　　要：近年来各类贸易政策冲击使全球产业链步入深度调整期,“健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度”成为当前经济工作的重点。本文基于FactSet Revere全球供应链数据,对中国上市公司的海外供应链关系进行追踪,考察了美国对华加征关税这一贸易政策冲击下中国上市公司海外供应链的变迁动态与重构模式。研究表明:贸易政策冲击显著提高了“断链”风险,但当产品难以替代、契约成本较高或双方具有长期合作基础时,供应链表现出更强韧性。进一步研究供应链重构模式发现,中美企业间“断链”难以在短期内恢复,但中国企业会通过将供应链转移至近岸、本土以及其他欧美国家以实现风险规避,同时调整产业范围完成供应链重构,这一过程在企业具备较高的信息搜寻效率和较强的多元化布局能力时更易实现。在当前全球产业分工格局深刻调整背景下,本文研究结论可以为中国有效应对外部经贸冲击、提升供应链韧性,完善高水平对外开放体制机制提供决策参考。With increasing international economic and policy uncertainties as well as the resurgence of trade protectionism,frequent adjustments and sudden shifts in trade policies pose significant challenges to the stability of global supply chains.Thus,accurately assessing the risks and impacts of trade policy shocks on Chinese enterprises within the global supply chain network and identifying response strategies and specific measures taken by micro-entities are crucial for understanding and navigating the ongoing transformation of global supply chains.It also carries significant policy implications and practical relevance for clarifying China's strategic direction and response measures in the context of accelerating global supply chain restructuring.Based on that,our study takes the U.S.tariff hikes on imported Chinese products starting in March 2018 as a representative case of trade policy changes.By using the FactSet Revere database,we identify and track supply chain relationships between Chinese listed companies and overseas customers,empirically examining the dynamic patterns of supply chain disruption and restructuring under trade policy shocks.Our study finds that(1)trade policy shocks significantly affect the continuity of supply chains.Following the U.S.tariff hikes,the probability of supply chain disruption between Chinese firms and the U.S.partners increases significantly due to the substantial rise in tariff costs.Also,we explore the key factors influencing supply chain resilience,which reveals that supply chain resilience is notably stronger with lower product substitutability,higher contractual costs,and a longer cooperation relationship between suppliers and their overseas customers.(2)We also focus on patterns of supply chain restructuring under trade policy shocks.On the one hand,once supply chains are disrupted,it is difficult to recover in the short term.On the other hand,new cooperation networks rapidly form as old supply chains break,leading to a shift in supply chain relationships.Specifically,compan

关 键 词：供应链韧性 供应链重构 贸易政策冲击 不确定性 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F757.12[经济管理—产业经济] F274F832.51