生产网络视角下的服务业增长与经济波动  

Growth of the Service Sector and Economic Fluctuations:A Production Network Perspective

作　　者：程大中[1,2] 唐雨桐 邵心怡 CHENG Dazhong;TANG Yutong;SHAO Xinyi(Department of World Economy,Fudan University;Institute of World Economy,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济系,200433 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,邮政编码:200433

出　　处：《经济研究》2024年第8期169-188,共20页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273034)的资助。

摘　　要：本文从全球生产网络的视角研究服务业增长对经济波动的影响及其作用机制。我们通过构建生产网络一般均衡模型分析这一影响机制,并利用近30年的全球投入—产出数据与联立方程模型进行经验检验。结果显示:服务业初始投入占比、最终消费占比上升10%,将导致生产网络稀疏度降低0.42%—1.34%;生产网络稀疏度降低10%,将导致经济波动幅度下降0.79—1.56个单位。这表明,与服务业增长相伴随的服务业初始投入和最终消费占比的上升使得生产网络关联稀疏度趋于下降,进而有助于熨平经济波动。反事实分析表明,如果将中国的服务业占比、行业中间投入占比与服务业生产率波动分别替换为美国的相应数据,则中国的总体经济波动均会出现不同程度的下降,但改变服务业占比和行业中间投入占比的贡献率最大(69.8%和73.6%)。本项研究意味着,积极采取措施促进服务业发展,对于中国经济的稳增长、调结构、降波动具有深远的战略意义。According to Victor Fuchs(1968),the cyclical fluctuations in output and employment in the industrial sector are larger than those in the service sector.This implies that as the proportion of the service sector increases,the cyclical fluctuations of the overall economy will tend to decrease,which has been confirmed by the performance of the real economy.Why does the growth of the service sector lead to a reduction in economic fluctuations?This paper intends to explore this issue from the perspective of production networks.Theoretically,we propose a general equilibrium model with a production network to understand the mechanism by which the growth of the service sector affects economic fluctuations,and develop two interrelated theoretical hypotheses.First,when the elasticities of substitution between primary inputs and intermediate inputs are greater than those between different intermediate inputs,lower sparsity of production networks will lead to smaller economic fluctuations.Second,a rising proportion of the service sector will cause declining sparsity of production networks,via an increase in the shares of primary inputs and final consumption,with the former reflecting the growing role of the service sector as a user of primary inputs and the latter reflecting the increased role of the service sector as a provider of final goods.Empirically,we employ nearly 30 years of global input-output data to conduct empirical tests based on a simultaneous equation econometric model.The benchmark regression results show that a 10%increase in the proportions of primary inputs and final consumption in the service sector will reduce production network sparsity by 0.42%—1.34%,while a 10%reduction in production network sparsity will result in a decrease of 0.79—1.56 units in economic fluctuations.This suggests that the growth of the service sector with rises in the proportions of primary inputs and final consumption can lower production network linkage sparsity,and thus iron out economic fluctuations.This basic conclusion re

关 键 词：服务业增长 经济波动 生产网络 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F124.1