数字普惠金融与城乡居民消费结构升级--基于拓展AIDS模型的实证研究  

Digital Inclusive Finance and Improvement of Consumption Structure--Empirical Study Based on Expanded AIDS Model

作　　者：张林[1,2] 张雯卿[3] 温涛 ZHANG Lin;ZHANG Wen-qing;WEN Taol(Center for Inclusive Finance and Agricultural&Rural Development Research,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;School of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;School of Mathematics,Shandong University,Jinan 250199,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学普惠金融与农业农村发展研究中心,重庆400715 [2]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [3]山东大学数学学院,山东济南250199

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2024年第5期903-922,共20页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(23BJY149);国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD123);国家社科基金重点项目(20AZD080);国家社科基金重点项目(23AJY014)。

摘　　要：本文基于拓展的AIDS模型和2011-2019年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用似不相关回归(SUR)和两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)等方法,对数字普惠金融如何影响居民消费结构升级进行了理论分析和实证检验。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融发展可以抑制居民生存型消费,并同时促进发展型消费与享受型消费,在控制内生性、更换核心变量和更换模型参数的估计方法后等检验后该结论依然稳健。从传导机制来看,数字普惠金融发展主要通过提升支付便利性和减缓流动性约束来促进居民消费结构升级,而降低预防性储蓄机制不成立。异质性检验结果显示,数字普惠金融发展对中等消费水平居民的影响作用最大,对农村居民消费的影响作用大于城镇居民;数字普惠金融对居民消费结构升级的作用机制在东部、中部和西部地区也存在较大差异。本文的政策启示在于:利用数字普惠金融促进居民消费升级不仅需要多措并举加快数字普惠金融发展,更需要制定差异化的消费金融政策措施以不断激发和释放居民消费潜力。Based on the expanded AIDS model and the panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 2011 to 2019,this paper empirically study on the effect and transmission mechanism of the development of digital inclusive finance on the consumption structure by using Seemingly Unrelated Regression and Two Stage Least Square Method.The results show that the development of digital inclusive finance can help to restrain subsistence consumption,and promote development consumption and enjoyment consumption,this conclusion still holds after the endogeneity discussion and robustness test.The development of digital inclusive finance mainly promotes the upgrading of consumption structure by improving the payment convenience and easing liquidity constraints,while reducing precautionary savings is not the main reason.Finally,the impact of digital inclusive finance on the upgrading of consumption structure is significantly different among different consumption levels,between urban and rural areas,eastern,central and western regions.The above inclusions indicate that using digital inclusive finance to promote the upgrading of consumption not only should improve the level of digital inclusive finance,but also need to formulate different consumer financial policies and measures to motivate and exploit consumption potential.

关 键 词：数字普惠金融 消费结构升级 AIDS模型 异质性 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]