蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统耦合协调对中蒙畜产品贸易的影响研究  

Study on the impact of coupled coordination of livestock industry,e-commerce and logistics system on trade of livestock products between China and Mongolia

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作  者:许红梅 高博[1] 乔光华[1] XU Hongmei;GAO Bo;QIAO Guanghua(College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China)

机构地区:[1]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院,呼和浩特010018

出  处:《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2024年第20期1-10,17,共11页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基  金:国家重点研发计划项目“中蒙农牧业供应链协作研究”(2021YFE0190200)。

摘  要:为了研究中蒙畜产品贸易与蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统协调发展的动态关系,本研究基于《蒙古国统计年鉴》(2001—2021年)的数据,采用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、障碍度模型及向量自回归(VAR)模型等方法对中蒙畜产品贸易及蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统的协调进展进行了分析。结果表明:2000—2020年,蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统整体的发展评价综合得分及各系统发展评价综合得分均呈现整体上升的变化趋势,总体发展趋势向好;蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统耦合协调度从0.296上升至0.877,由重度失调发展为良好协调。在畜牧业系统中,主要障碍因子是牧场及草地面积、饲料作物种植面积和饲料饲草供应;在电商系统中,主要障碍因子是互联网用户数量;在物流系统中,主要障碍因子是公路通车里程数、邮政邮件和包裹总数、运输业收入。中蒙畜产品贸易额与蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统耦合协调度之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系;中蒙畜产品贸易额受自身因素影响较大,但随着时间推移,蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统耦合协调发展对贸易的影响逐渐增加。因此,笔者提出中蒙两国应支持贸易便利化措施,合力解决制约畜牧业、电商和物流系统综合发展的障碍因素,加强蒙古国畜牧业、电商和物流系统耦合协调发展。In order to study the dynamic relationship between China-Mongolia livestock products trade and the coordinated development of Mongolia's livestock industry,e-commerce and logistics system,in this study,based on data from the Mongolian Statistical Yearbook(20012021),the entropy method,coupled coordination degree model,obstacle degree model and vector autoregression(VAR)model were used to analyze the progress of China-Mongolia livestock products trade and the coordination of Mongolia's livestock,e-commerce and logistics system.The results showed that the overall development evaluation composite scores of Mongolia's livestock industry,e-commerce and logistics system,as well as the development evaluation composite scores of each system,showed an overall upward trend,and the overall development trend was favourable.The coupled coordination of livestock,e-commerce and logistics system in Mongolia increased from 0.296 to 0.877 from 2000 to 2020,and developed from severe dysregulation to good coordination.In the livestock system,the main obstacle factors were pasture and grassland area,fodder crop cultivation area,and fodder forage supply;in the e-commerce system,the main obstacle factor was the total number of Internet users;and in the logistics system,the main obstacle factors were the number of road mileage,the total number of postal mails and parcels,and the revenue of the transportation industry.There was a bidirectional Granger causation between China-Mongolia livestock products trade value and the coupled and coordinated development of Mongolia's livestock industry,e-commerce and logistics system.China-Mongolia livestock products trade was strongly influenced by its own factors;however,the impact of the coupled and coordinated development of Mongolia's livestock industry,e-commerce and logistics system on trade value had gradually increased over time.Therefore,the author proposed that China and Mongolia should support trade facilitation measures,jointly solve the obstacles constraining the integrated development o

关 键 词:贸易 畜牧业 电商 物流 耦合协调度 VAR模型 蒙古国 

分 类 号:F323[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6

 

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