利率管制放开、信贷风险定价与企业就业吸纳——基于取消贷款利率下限的准自然实验  

Deregulation of Interest Rate Controls,Credit Risk Pricing,and Enterprise Employment Absorption——A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Removal of the Loan Interest Rate Floor

作　　者：易定红[1] 曾祥金 位晓琳 YI Ding-hong;ZENG Xiang-jin;WEI Xiao-lin(School of Labor and Human Resources,Renmin University of China,100872;School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,330013)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学劳动人事学院,100872 [2]江西财经大学经济学院,330013

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2024年第10期101-115,共15页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家财政部委托项目“经济新常态下劳动力市场重大问题研究”(项目编号:2015020355)的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：企业是吸纳就业的蓄水池,满足企业的金融需求是实现稳就业目标的前提。基于2006—2022年中国A股上市公司数据,以取消贷款利率下限政策为准自然实验,运用双重差分法研究利率管制放开对企业就业吸纳的影响。研究发现:利率管制放开使企业吸纳就业的规模上升14%。机制分析表明,利率管制放开通过推动信贷风险定价和风险配置,使企业融资成本降低、融资可得性增加与现金流约束减少,进而促进就业。异质性分析表明,利率管制放开对企业就业吸纳的正效应在政府干预程度弱、金融业竞争激烈与东中部地区以及融资约束小、民营企业与劳动密集型企业中更强。扩展性分析表明,利率管制放开还通过扩大企业的机器设备投入使企业吸纳更多高技能劳动力,形成资本技能互补效应。研究结论为深化金融市场化改革、实现高质量充分就业提供有益启示。Enterprises act as reservoirs for employment absorption,and meeting their financial needs is essential for achieving employment stability.Utilizing data from A-share listed companies in China from 2006 to 2022,and leveraging the removal of the loan interest rate floor as a quasi-natural experiment,this study employs the Difference-in-Differences(DID)method to examine the impact of deregulating interest rate controls on enterprise employment absorption.The findings indicate that deregulation of interest rate controls increases the scale of enterprise employment absorption by 14%.Mechanism analysis reveals that deregulation facilitates credit risk pricing and risk allocation,thereby reducing financing costs,increasing financing availability,and alleviating cash flow constraints,ultimately promoting employment.Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the positive effect of deregulation on enterprise employment absorption is more pronounced in regions with weaker government intervention,intense financial industry competition,and in the eastern and central regions,as well as in enterprises with fewer financing constraints,private enterprises,and labor-intensive enterprises.Further analysis suggests that deregulation also drives increased investment in machinery and equipment,enabling enterprises to absorb more highly skilled labor and creating a capital-skill complementarity effect.The study's conclusions provide valuable insights for deepening financial market reforms and achieving high-quality,full employment.

关 键 词：利率管制 风险定价 风险配置 现金流约束 稳就业 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]