“一带一路”沿线国家的人口迁移及其演化  

Analysis of the Characteristics and Evolution of Population Migration in the Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：马佳骏 勾文沙 李小萌 史毅[3] 肖明忠 陈清华[2] MA Jiajun;GOU Wensha;LI Xiaomeng;SHI Yi;XIAO Mingzhong;CHEN Qinghua(School of Systems Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Artificial Intelligence,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学系统科学学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学人工智能学院,北京100875 [3]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2024年第3期23-29,共7页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(22BRK021);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(20YJAZH010)。

摘　　要：为探究“一带一路”沿线国家的人口迁移特征及演化,在复杂系统科学的视角下,基于1960—2020年的人口迁移数据构造网络,通过抽取骨干网、社团划分、应用PageRank重要性评价等方法进行分析。研究发现:该区域国家的人口流入流出逐步趋于平衡,开放程度逐年上升;迁移过程普遍具有“抱团性”和“聚集性”特征;该区域大部分国家在世界移民网络中的影响力处于领先位置。此研究为各国的人口政策提供了证据和基础。To explore the population migration characteristics and evolution patterns of BRI countries,this paper constructs a network based on population migration data from 1960 to 2020 from the perspective of complex systems science,and conducts analysis by extracting backbone networks,community divisions,and application of PageRank importance evaluation method.The results demonstrate that the migration volume of inflows and outflows within BRI countries has tended to be balanced,and the degree of openness is increasing year by year.And the migration process generally has"cohesion"and"aggregation".The influence of most BRI countries in the global network is higher than the world average.This study provides evidence and basis for the population policies of various countries.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 人口迁移 社团划分 抱团性 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]