基于复杂网络的天然气管道网络风险传播研究  

A Study of Risk Propagation in Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Complex Networks

作　　者：戴剑勇 甘美艳[1,2] 张美荣 毛佳志 刘朝 DAI Jianyong;GAN Meiyan;ZHANG Meirong;MAO Jiazhi;LIU Chao(School of Resource Environment and Safety Engineering,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China;Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Emergency Safety Technology and Equipment for Nuclear Facilities,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学资源环境与安全工程学院,湖南衡阳421001 [2]南华大学核设施应急安全技术与装备湖南省重点实验室,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2024年第3期69-76,共8页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：湖南省教育厅重点资助科研项目(18A235)。

摘　　要：为改善管道安全监控与维护,探究天然气管道网络最优风险传播路径。首先,基于复杂网络理论构建网络拓扑结构,利用应用熵权—TOPSIS法对网络节点重要性排序。其次,构建天然气管道网络风险传播模型,定义网络节点失效率和脆弱度,得到蓄意破坏与随机破坏策略下节点的风险传播度和风险最优传播路径。最后,以上海市天然气管道网络为例进行实证分析,结果表明,级联风险情况下的蓄意破坏传播风险度总和大于随机破坏,为管道拓扑优化与维护提供依据。To improve pipeline safety monitoring and maintenance,the optimal risk transmission path of the natural gas pipeline network is explored.Firstly,the network topology is constructed based on complex network theory,and the importance of network nodes is ranked by entropy weight-TOPSIS method.Secondly,the risk propagation model of the natural gas pipeline network is constructed,the failure rate and vulnerability of network nodes are defined,and the risk propagation degree and optimal risk propagation path of nodes under deliberate and random failure strategies are obtained.Finally,based on the empirical analysis of the Shanghai natural gas pipeline network,the results show that the total risk of intentional damage propagation is greater than that of random damage in the case of cascade risk,which provides a basis for pipeline topology optimization and maintenance.

关 键 词：复杂网络 天然气管道网络 风险传播路径 蓄意破坏 随机破坏 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]