国际产业转移、技术创新与制造业全球价值链地位  

International Industrial Transfer,Technological Innovation and the Global Value Chain Status of Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：张玉[1] 乔敏健 张彦红 Zhang Yu;Qiao Minjian;Zhang Yanhong(School of International Politics and Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102488 [2]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071002 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2024年第21期44-53,共10页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21CGJ045);中国社会科学院大学(研究生院)研究生科学创新项目(2023ky103)。

摘　　要：考察国际产业转移对全球价值链地位影响的一般规律对于发展中国家突破全球价值链“低端锁定”具有重要意义。基于OECD-TiVA(2021)数据库,运用投入产出模型测算1995—2018年中国和东盟国家产业转移规模,从理论和实证层面检验国际产业转移对制造业全球价值链地位的影响以及技术创新的调节效应。研究发现:①国际产业转移与中国和东盟国家制造业全球价值链地位呈倒“U”型关系,目前大部分制造业未跨越拐点,处于国际产业转移促进制造业全球价值链地位攀升的“适度区间”,经多种稳健性检验后倒“U”形关系依然成立;②技术创新在两者间的调节效应显著,会弱化两者间的倒“U”型关系,促使国际产业转移对制造业全球价值链地位影响的倒“U”型曲线较基准回归结果更平缓;③扩展分析发现,全球价值链前向参与度会弱化国际产业转移与制造业全球价值链地位的倒“U”型关系,而全球价值链后向参与度则会强化这种“低端锁定”效应;④最终产品国际产业转移与制造业GVC地位倒“U”型曲线较中间产品国际产业转移更陡峭。International industrial transfer is an important way for emerging countries to participate in globalized mass production and to be embedded in the global value chain division.Since the fourth international industrial transfer,intra-industry transfers have replaced inter-industry transfers,with transnational corporations taking the lead in globalized mass production on the basis of factor endowments.Many countries only take on a part of the production chain;developed countries firmly control the high-end segment of the value chain by virtue of their advanced technologies,and developing countries generally occupy the middle-and low-end production segments.China and the ASEAN countries are typical of the outward-looking economic development model,and under this"low-end embedded"global value chain model,China and ASEAN countries are mainly engaged in low-end processing,assembly and other labor-intensive production processes in the manufacturing industry,and they are still locked in the middle and lower ends of the global value chain by developed countries.At present,how to promote China and ASEAN countries to make leaps forward in the manufacturing global value chain has become an important issue to be resolved.In order to determine the general rule of the impact of international industrial transfer on the status of global value chains,the article measures the scale of international industrial transfer between China and ASEAN countries from 1995 to 2018 based on the OECD-TiVA(2021)database,using the input-output model and the GVC decomposition method,and further divides the international industrial transfer into two categories,namely,international industrial transfer of intermediate products and international industrial transfer of intermediate products.The theory analyzes the mechanism of the impact of industrial transfer on the status of global value chain,and the positive impact mainly stems from the three aspects of technology spillover,financing constraints and product quality improvement.Negative impacts mainl

关 键 词：国际产业转移 技术创新 全球价值链地位 全球价值链参与度 

分 类 号：F415[经济管理—产业经济]