隐含返工对研发进度影响程度的量化评估  

Quantitative Evaluation of Impact of Hidden Rework on Development Progress

作　　者：张西林 范林榜[1,2] 林兵 ZHANG Xi-li;FAN Lin-bang;LIN Bing(Business School,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China;Modern Logistics and Supply Chain Research Center,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学商学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]江苏师范大学现代物流与供应链研究中心,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2024年第10期279-283,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL100);江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2020SJA1034)。

摘　　要：在研发项目运行过程中,由于众多不确定因素的影响,经常会发生预测不到的返工,难以准确评估实际进度。在构建表面进度、实际进度、延期程度、延期概率等研发项目运行效果评价指标量化模型的基础上,通过大量仿真数据分析隐含返工对研发进度、延期风险的影响。结果表明:随着研发项目的进行,实际进度与表面进度的差距先增大后减小;随着隐含返工概率、隐含返工影响程度的增大,研发项目的表面进度和实际进度均减慢,进度差距增大,延期风险增大;研发进度、延期风险对隐含返工概率更为敏感。During the operation of development projects,due to the influence of numerous uncertain factors,unpredictable rework often occurs,making it is difficult to accurately evaluate the actual progress.Based on the establishment of a quantitative model for evaluating the operational effects of development projects such as surface progress,actual progress,delay degree,and delay probability,wa evaluated the impact of hidden rework on development progress and delay risk by a great deal of simulation data analysis.The findings show that,as the R&D project progresses,the gap between actual progress and surface progress first increases and then decreases;As the probability and impact of implicit rework increase,both the surface and actual progress of R&D projects slow down,the progress gap widens,and the risk of delay increases.Finally,development progress and delay risk are more sensitive to the hidden rework probability.

关 键 词：研发项目 隐含返工 研发进度 实际进度 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]