基于VORS模型的黄河流域生态系统健康评估与预测  

Assessment and Prediction of Ecosystem Health in the Yellow River Basin Based on the VORS Model

作　　者：许静 王德仁 XU Jing;WANG Deren(School of Economics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730101,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学经济学院,甘肃兰州730101

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2024年第10期1612-1623,共12页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(23BJY198)。

摘　　要：黄河流域水资源短缺、水土流失严重、生态本底脆弱,科学评估黄河流域生态系统健康对于防范和化解流域生态风险,保障黄河安澜,促进流域生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义。以黄河流域为研究区,构建活力-组织力-弹力-服务(VORS)评估框架,探讨2000-2020年生态系统健康时空分异,并耦合GMOP与PLUS模型预测2030年多情景下生态系统健康动态演变。结果表明:2000、2010和2020年,黄河流域生态系统活力均值分别为0.435、0.437和0.436,整体较为稳定,呈西高东低的空间分布特征;生态系统组织力指数均值分别为0.593、0.603和0.629,呈中部向四周递减的特征;生态系统弹力指数均值分别为0.507、0.511和0.505,东部低,其余地区较高;生态系统服务指数均值分别为0.402、0.398和0.390,呈由北向南递增的趋势;生态系统健康指数分别为0.419、0.423和0.425,呈中部高、东部低的空间分布特征。2030年,各情景下活力、弹力和生态系统服务无显著差异,而生态保护(EP)和综合发展(CD)情景下组织力显著提高。2030年,各情景下生态系统健康空间分布均呈中部较高,东、西南部较低的特征,但EP和CD情景下生态系统健康水平略高于自然发展(ND)和经济发展(ED)情景,且CD情景下生态系统健康I级城市数量最多,因此CD情景可以在满足经济发展需求的前提下确保生态系统健康水平最高,为相对优选情景。该研究以VORS为基础,耦合GMOP-PLUS模型测度黄河流域生态系统健康水平,研究结果可以为流域生态系统科学管理、协同流域经济发展与生态保护提供决策依据。The Yellow River Basin is characterized by a shortage of water resources,serious soil erosion,and fragile ecological fundamentals.A scientific assessment of the ecosystem health of the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for preventing and resolving ecological risks,ensuring the safety of the Yellow River,and promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin.Using the Yellow River Basin as the study area,the Vigor-Organization-Resilience-Services assessment framework was constructed to discuss the spatiotemporal differentiation of ecosystem health from 2000 to 2020 and couple the GMOP and PLUS models to predict the dynamic evolution of ecosystem health under multiple scenarios in 2030.The results showed that,in 2000,2010 and 2020,the average values of ecosystem vigor index in the Yellow River Basin were 0.435,0.437 and 0.436 respectively,which were relatively stable overall,showing the spatial distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east;the average value of ecosystem organization index were 0.593,0.603 and 0.629 respectively,showing a decreasing trend from the middle to the surrounding areas;the average value of ecosystem resilience index were 0.507,0.511 and 0.505 respectively,with lower values in the eastern region and higher values in other areas;the average value of ecosystem services index were 0.402,0.398 and 0.390 respectively,with an increasing trend from north to south;the ecosystem health indexes were 0.419,0.423 and 0.425 respectively,with a spatial distribution characteristic of high in the center and low in the east.In 2030,under all scenarios,there were no significant differences in vitality,resilience,and ecosystem services,whereas organizational strength significantly increased under the Ecological Protection(EP)and Comprehensive Development(CD)scenarios.In 2030,the spatial distribution of ecosystem health under all scenarios is generally higher in the central region and lower in the eastern and southwestern regions.However,under the EP and CD scena

关 键 词：生态系统健康 活力-组织力-弹力-服务 VORS模型 生态系统服务 GMOP-PLUS模型 黄河流域 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]