CMA-WSP风速预报订正产品在贵州风电场的检验评估  

Validation and Assessment of the CMA-WSP Wind Speed Forecast Correction Product at Guizhou Wind Farms

作　　者：陶勇 王加敏 陈果 吴昌航 叶茵 陈义义 TAO Yong;WANG Jiamin;CHEN Guo;WU Changhang;YE Yin;CHEN Yiyi(Guizhou Institute of Mountain Meteorological Science,Guiyang 550081,China;Guizhou New Meteorological Technology Co.,Ltd.Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Meteorological Bureau Service Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,China;Baiyun District Meteorological Station of Guiyang City,Guizhou province,Guiyang 550014,China;Guizhou Sub-Bureau of Southwest Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Guiyang 550005,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省山地气象科学研究所,贵州贵阳550081 [2]贵州新气象科技有限责任公司,贵州贵阳550002 [3]贵州省气象局机关服务中心,贵州贵阳550002 [4]贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳550002 [5]贵州省贵阳市白云区气象局,贵州贵阳550014 [6]中国民用航空西南地区空中交通管理局贵州分局,贵州贵阳550005

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第5期41-47,共7页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：中国华电集团有限公司2023年科技项目与技术标准计划(CHDKJ23-02-40):气象赋能光伏电站安全、高效预警预测技术研究及应用。

摘　　要：【目的】为检验CMA-WSP风速预报订正产品在贵州风电场中的预报可靠性,对未来72 h风速预报产品进行检验评估。【方法】利用贵州乌江源风电场2023年9月1日-12月31日12台标杆风力发电机组实测风速数据进行研究。【结果】(1)预报风速与实测风速变化趋势基本一致,预报风速整体上比实测风速偏小,逐15 min和1 h未来24 h预报风速与实测风速相关系数分别为0.745和0.754,随着预报时效的延长,预报风速与实际风速的偏差增大,准确率逐渐降低。(2)风速订正算法对于平均风速的预报能力比极值预报能力略好。(3)从日分布情况看,在02-17时,预报平均风速均小于实测平均风速,其余时段则相反;预报平均风速与实测平均风速在08-12时相差最大。(4)6个独立厂区未来24 h的准确率均比整体风电场低,而百草坪厂区和祖安山厂区未来48 h和72 h的准确率却比整体风电场高。【结论】CMA-WSP风速预报订正产品在贵州风电场预报效果较好,下一步可利用更长时间序列的资料深入研究。To assess the forecast reliability of the CMA-WSP wind speed forecast product at wind farms in Guizhou,evaluation is conducted on the 72 h wind speed forecast product.The study data used is the wind speed data from 12 benchmark wind turbines at the Wujiangyuan Wind Farm in Guizhou from September 1,2023,to December 31,2023.The results indicate that:(1)The wind speed forecast product generally aligns with the trends of measured wind speeds,although the forecasted wind speeds are overall lower than the measured ones.The correlation coefficients between the 15 min and 1 h forecasted wind speeds with lead time of 24 h are 0.745 and 0.754,respectively.As the forecast lead time is prolonged,the deviation between the forecasted and measured wind speeds increases,and the accuracy gradually decreases.(2)The wind speed correction algorithm performs slightly better in forecasting average wind speeds than in forecasting extreme values.(3)In terms of daily distribution,the forecasted average wind speeds are lower than the measured average wind speeds between 02∶00 and 17∶00,but higher in the other periods of time.The largest difference between the forecasted and measured average wind speeds occurs from 08∶00 to 12∶00.(4)The accuracy of the 24 h forecasts for six independent plant areas is generally lower than that of the entire wind farm,while the accuracy of the 48 h and 72 h forecasts for the Baicaoping and Zu'anshan plant areas is higher than that of the entire wind farm.Overall,the CMA-WSP wind speed forecast correction product performs better in the wind farms of Guizhou.In the future,further in-depth studies can be conducted with data of longer time series.

关 键 词：CMA-WSP 预报风速 贵州 风电场 检验评估 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]