基于REOF分析的贵州省降水模式识别及变化趋势预测  

Precipitation Pattern Recognition and Change Trend Prediction in Guizhou Province Based on REOF Analysis

作　　者：任青峰 张正强 梅可远 赵劲松 骆海顺 吴新豪 REN Qingfeng;ZHANG Zhengqiang;MEI Keyuan;ZHAO Jinsong;LUO Haishun;WU Xinhao(Renhuai Meteorological Office of Guizhou Province,Renhuai 564500,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省仁怀市气象局,贵州仁怀564500

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第5期87-93,共7页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

摘　　要：【目的】为了解贵州省区域降水特点和变化趋势,更好地应对气候变化。【方法】应用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)方法,将贵州省1963-2022年降雨场划分为4个区域,并分析了各区域降水特征及其变化趋势。【结果】总体上Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区呈减少趋势,Ⅲ区呈增加趋势,变化趋势在1989-2014年之间通过P<0.05的显著性检验,其中Ⅳ区变化趋势在1986年有突变;各区均有35 a的主周期变化,其中Ⅰ区未来5 a为下降周期,Ⅱ区未来9 a为下降周期,Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区未来4 a为下降周期。【结论】贵州省降水有明显的年代际变化,Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区相较于Ⅲ区、Ⅳ区出现极端干旱和强降水事件的概率更大,各区年平均降水量均显示出较为明显的周期性变化特征,未来变化有显著的持续性。In order to better understand the characteristics and variation trends of regional precipitation in Guizhou Province and cope with climate change,by using the rotary empirical orthogonal function decomposition(REOF)method,we divide the rainfall field in Guizhou Province from 1963 to 2022 into 4 regions and analyze the characteristics and trend of precipitation in each region.Generally,precipitation in RegionⅠ,RegionⅡ,and RegionⅣshows a decreasing trend,but an increasing trend in RegionⅢ.The change trend has passed the significance test of P<0.05 between 1989 and 2014.The change trend of RegionⅣprecipitation experiences anabrupt change in 1986.Each of the four regions has a 35-year main cycle change in precipitation,but in the future the precipitation in all the four regions is projected to be in a decreasing cycle,i.e.,in the next 5 years in RegionⅠ,in the next 9 years in RegionⅡ,and in the next 4 years in RegionⅢandⅣ.Moreover,precipitation in Guizhou Province has obvious interdecadal changes.Compared with RegionⅢandⅣ,RegionⅠandⅡhave a higher probability of extreme drought and heavy precipitation events.The annual average precipitation in each region shows more obvious cyclical changes.The change of future precipitation hasa significant sustainability.

关 键 词：贵州降水 旋转经验正交分解(REOF) 空间分布 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]