矿业项目投资评估模型构建与决策研究  

Construction of investment evaluation model and decision research for mining projects

作　　者：罗林山 黄超 杨相 陈灵 陈小庆 黄博滔 桂道林 郭明国 黄声济 廖生兴 梁敏辉 杨晓斌 LUO Linshan;HUANG Chao;YANG Xiang;CHEN Ling;CHEN Xiaoqing;HUANG Botao;GUI Daolin;GUO Mingguo;HUANG Shengji;LIAO Shengxing;LIANG Minhui;YANG Xiaobin(Ganzhou Development New Energy Co.,Ltd.,Ganzhou 341000,China;Ganzhou Industrial Investment Holding Group Co.,Ltd.,Ganzhou 341000,China;Jiangxi Mining Federation,Nanchang 330002,China;Ganzhou Development Investment Holding Group Co.,Ltd.,Ganzhou 341000,China;School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]赣州发展新能源有限公司,江西赣州341000 [2]赣州工业投资控股集团有限公司,江西赣州341000 [3]江西省矿业联合会,江西南昌330002 [4]赣州发展投资控股集团有限责任公司,江西赣州341000 [5]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《中国矿业》2024年第S02期29-39,共11页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：赣州市社科重点课题项目资助(编号:2024-ZDZX10-0584)。

摘　　要：矿业投资项目具有投入大、周期长、风险高、技术性强、不确定性因素多且复杂的特点,为矿业投资人提供投资思路与方法,提升决策的科学水平,本文系统地对矿业投资项目分类与特点、矿业项目总体投资逻辑、矿业项目考察逻辑进行了深入分析研究,在此基础上,建立出一套矿业投资评估要点模型与决策参考标准,研究制定出矿企合法合规、证照合法齐全、矿业权资源优质、采选条件适宜、基建利用率高、周边环境政策优化六大评估决策标准及细则,根据不同类型矿业投资项目匹配相应的决策标准,采用权重分值法将各个项目按照决策标准细则评分,以评分将矿业项目分为优质(100~85分)、次优(85~70分)、一般(70~50分)、劣质(50分以下)四个等级,建议优质矿业项目、次优矿业项目可考虑投资,一般类矿业项目投资需谨慎,劣质矿业项目不可投。构建成矿规模研判模型估算矿业权储量,进一步建立矿业权价值评估模型计算矿业权投资参考价格,结合项目等级,为矿业项目投资提供科学决策依据,降低投资风险,提升投资回报率。Mining investment projects are characterized by a great deal of investment,long development period,high risk,significant technical complexity,and numerous uncertainties.To provide investment ideas and methods,and enhance the scientific level of decision-making for mining investors,this paper offers a comprehensive analysis of mining investment projects,including their classification and characteristics,overall investment logic,and investigation logic of mining project.On this basis,a set of key models and decision reference standards for mining investment evaluation are established,and six evaluation decision standards and details are developed for mining enterprises,including legal compliance,complete legal licenses,high-quality mining rights resources,suitable mining conditions,high infrastructure utilization rate,and good surrounding environmental policies.According to different types of mining investment projects matching the corresponding decision criteria,using the weighted score method for each project in accordance with the details of the decision standards.Mining projects are categorized according to scores into four grades:high-quality(100-85 points),sub-optimal(85-70 points),general(70-50 points),and poor-quality(less than 50 points).It is suggested that highquality and sub-optimal class mining projects can be considered for investment,general class mining projects should be invested with caution,and poor-quality mining projects should not be invested.At the same time,a mineralization scale analysis model is constructed to estimate reserves,and a mining right value evaluation model is further established to calculate the reference price for mining right investment.Combined with project class,it provides scientific decision basis for mining project investment,reduces investment risks,and improves investment return rate.

关 键 词：矿业投资 评估模型 考察要点 风险 决策标准 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程] F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]