基于Weibull时间函数的采煤沉陷区地表动态沉陷预测模型  

The prediction model of the surface dynamic movement and deformation based on Weibull time function

作　　者：王礼 王凯伦 闫红波 WANG Li;WANG Kailun;YAN Hongbo(Liangbei Coal Mine of Henan Shenhuo Group,Yuzhou 461670,China;Henan Zhilian Spacetime Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450016,China;Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,China)

机构地区：[1]河南神火煤电股份有限公司梁北煤矿,河南禹州461670 [2]河南智联时空信息科技有限公司,河南郑州450016 [3]河南理工大学,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《中国矿业》2024年第S02期158-162,共5页China Mining Magazine

摘　　要：煤矿地表开采沉陷是一个复杂的时空过程,是矿山开采沉陷重点解决的问题。本文将时间参数引入到地表移动变形的动态预计中,分析了Weibull模型及其描述地表动态沉陷规律的适用性,并进行了参数分析,建立了地表动态沉陷预测模型。进行了实例分析。研究结果表明,参数n和k是该函数模型的重要参数,对描述地表动态移动变形量较为敏感;通过运用本文提出的地表动态移动变形预计模型,计算得到的地表下沉值相对误差均在7.0%以内,预计结果与实测结果较为吻合,预测模型可靠,预测结果可为相关减损措施的制定提供参考。The surface movement deformation is a complex time and spatial process caused by coal mining,which is a key problem to be solved in mining subsidence.In this paper,the time parameter is introduced into the dynamic prediction of surface movement and deformation,then the Weibull time function model of the surface dynamic prediction and its applicability to describe the law of the surface movement and deformation are analyzed.On this basis,combined with Weibull Distribution method and Weibull time function,a prediction model of surface dynamic movement and deformation is established,and a case study is carried out.The results show that parameters n and k are important parameters of the function model and are sensitive to describing the dynamic movement and deformation of the surface.The relative errors of the calculated the surface subsidence values are all within 7.0%by using the prediction model of dynamic surface movement and deformation proposed in this paper,and the predicted results are in good agreement with the measured results.It shows that the prediction model proposed in this paper has certain reliability and practicability,and which can provide reference for the dynamic prediction and prediction of the surface movement and deformation in mining area.

关 键 词：Weibull时间函数 开采沉陷 动态预测 参数分析 模型建立 

分 类 号：TD327[矿业工程—矿井建设]