新一轮农地确权与欠发达地区农户土地流转意愿:助推器还是抑制剂?——基于3032户调查证据的反事实估计  

The New Wave of Land Titling Program and Farmers ’ Land Transfer Willingnessin Underdeveloped Area:Booster or Inhibitor?—A Counterfactual Estimation based on Survey Evidence from 3 032 Farmers

作　　者：吕明 彭志远 LV Ming;PENG Zhiyuan

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学经济管理学院,昆明650224 [2]云南开放大学云南乡村振兴教育学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《世界农业》2024年第11期82-94,共13页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“易地扶贫搬迁城镇化集中安置多民族互嵌社区治理难点及对策研究”(20BMZ065);云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“云南农地确权、流转意愿与新型经营主体培育研究”(YB2020024);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“数字农业参与对家庭农场绿色生产行为的驱动机制与促进对策研究”(2023Y0811)。

摘　　要：在第二轮土地承包即将到期并再延长30年背景下,评估新一轮农地确权在欠发达地区的土地流转效应对推进农业适度规模经营和中国式农业现代化具有重要意义。本文运用云南省3032个农户调查数据,构建反事实估计模型,实证检验农地确权对农户土地流转意愿的影响效应。研究发现:①农地确权促进了欠发达地区农户土地流转意愿提升,且平均处理效应为5.7%,但与发达地区相比,农地确权对欠发达地区的土地流转效应尚未得到充分释放;②农户的农地权属认知、确权政策满意度和家庭收入结构均对其土地流转意愿有显著正向效应;③农地确权对农户土地流转意愿的影响在不同农户之间呈现显著分化规律,即农地确权显著提升了Ⅱ兼业户与非农户的土地流转意愿,但对低兼业化农户的影响效应不显著。据此,建议欠发达地区应持续推动农地确权成果巩固,加快成果拓展与转化;加强宣传引导,强化农户政策信任;因地制宜、因户施策,适度加快农户分化。Against the backdrop of the upcoming expiration of the second round of land contracting and an extension of another 30 years,evaluating the impact of the new wave of land titling on land transfer in underdeveloped areas has great significance in promoting moderate scale operation and Chinese agricultural modernization.This article uses survey data from 3032 farmers in Yunnan province to construct a counterfactual estimation model and empirically test the impact of land titling on farmers’land transfer willingness.The results show that:①Land titling has promoted farmers’land transfer willingness,and the ATT value is 5.7%.However,compared with developed areas,the land transfer effect of land titling on underdeveloped areas has not been fully released.②Farmers’awareness of land ownership,policy satisfaction and household income structure have a significant positive effect on their land transfer willingness.③The impact of land titling on farmers’land transfer willingness shows a significant differentiation pattern among different farmers.Specifically,land titling significantly enhances the willingness of part-time and non farmers to transfer land,but the effect on low part-time farmers is not significant.Accordingly,it is suggested that underdeveloped areas should continuously promote the consolidation of achievements in land titling,and accelerate the expansion and transformation of the achievements;strengthen publicity and guidance,enhance the trust of farmers in policies;adopt measures tailored to local conditions and households,and moderately accelerate the differentiation of farmers.

关 键 词：农地确权 土地流转意愿 农户分化 反事实估计 欠发达地区 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]