高比例可再生能源电力系统电源扩展优化研究——以尼日利亚为例  

Research on Power Expansion Optimization for High-Penetration Renewable Energy-based Power Systems—A Case Study of Nigeria

作　　者：罗智锋 古家平 胡延龙 周佳 Luo Zhifeng;Gu Jiaping;Hu Yanlong;Zhou Jia(POWERCHINA Chengdu Engineering Corporation Limited,Chengdu Sichuan 610072)

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团成都勘测设计研究院有限公司,四川成都610072

出　　处：《中外能源》2024年第11期24-29,共6页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：中国电建集团科技项目“基于海博平台的国际高比例可再生能源多能互补系统研发和实证研究”(编号:DJ-ZDXM-2021-12);“世界可再生能源分析与数字规划平台关键技术应用研究”(编号:P43819)。

摘　　要：支持可再生能源发展,建设清洁互补的能源系统、促进能源结构变革已成为全球各大国在能源转型领域的核心共识。尼日利亚是非洲人口大国,经济社会发展迅速,负荷增长较快,但国内多数发电设备较为陈旧,面临电力供应不足、供电结构单一的问题。据测算,到2030年,尼日利亚雨、旱季系统电力缺口分别为9950MW和7361MW,雨季系统调峰容量缺口388MW,电力供需矛盾突出。尼日利亚新能源资源丰富,水电技术可开发量大,结合其资源禀赋特征及可再生能源发展政策,考虑发展少量风电,电力和调峰缺口主要通过水电站和抽水蓄能等储能电站解决,电量缺口主要通过水电和光伏电站解决。在此基础上构建高比例可再生能源扩展优化模型,以经济成本最低为原则进行自动迭代寻优计算。2030水平年推荐电源配置为:水电装机10111MW、风电装机1400MW、光伏装机10269MW、火电装机11600MW。该方案可再生能源发电量占比超过45%,具有清洁绿色、安全稳定、经济合理的特征。Supporting the development of renewable energy,building clean and complementary energy systems and promoting the transformation of energy structures have become the primary consensus among major countries worldwide in pursuing energy transition.Nigeria,a populous nation in Africa with rapid economic and social growth,experiences swift load growth.However,the country faces significant challenges,including outdated power generation facilities,inadequate electricity supply,and a monotonous power supply structure.It is estimated that,by 2030,Nigeria′s power shortfalls during the rainy and dry seasons will reach 9950MW and 7361MW respectively,with a peak shaving capacity shortage of 388MW during the rainy season,highlighting a pronounced mismatch between power supply and demand.Fortunately,Nigeria is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources,particularly in hydropower,which offers significant technical potential for development.Leveraging its resource endowments and renewable energy development policies,the country is also considering a modest expansion in wind power,with the majority of its power and peak shaving shortfalls addressed through hydropower stations and pumped-storage hydropower plants,while the electricity shortfalls will primarily be met by hydropower and photovoltaic plants.On this basis,an optimization model for high-penetration renewable energy expansion has been constructed,employing an automatic iterative optimization process to minimize the economic costs.The recommended power generation mix for 2030 includes 10111MW of installed hydropower capacity,1400MW of installed wind power capacity,10269MW of installed photovoltaic capacity,and 11600MW of installed thermal power capacity.This scenario boasts a renewable energy generation share exceeding 45%,embodying the principles of cleanliness,greenness,safety,stability,and economic rationality.

关 键 词：高比例可再生能源 电源扩展优化 电力盈亏 调峰容量 电量缺口 尼日利亚 

分 类 号：F416.61[经济管理—产业经济] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]