土地财政情境下耕地占补平衡交易对地方政府债务规模的双边影响机制  

The Bilateral Impact of Transactions of Balancing Cultivated Land Occupation and Reclamation on Local Government Debt Scale in the Context of Land Finance

作　　者：李勃昕 冯雅萱 贾智滔 韩先锋 LI Boxin;FENG Yaxuan;JIA Zhitao;HAN Xianfeng(School of Economics,Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,Xi’an 710100,China;School of Economics and Management,Northwestern University,Xi’an 710127,China;Business School,The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Hong Kong 999077,China;Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学经济学院,陕西西安710100 [2]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [3]香港科技大学商学院,中国香港999077 [4]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第9期21-30,共10页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20CJY057)。

摘　　要：研究目的:揭示土地财政情境下耕地占补平衡交易对地方政府债务规模的双边影响机制,为科学实施耕地占补平衡策略、有效缓解地方政府债务压力提供双边经验启示和系统研究参考。研究方法:计量模型、实证研究。研究结果:(1)线性视角下,耕地占补平衡交易对地方政府债务规模的影响存在双边差异,出让用地指标能够有效降低政府债务规模,而购买用地指标对政府债务规模的影响并不显著。(2)非线性视角下,出让用地指标的降债效应存在边际递减规律,购买用地指标在初级阶段会增加政府债务规模,后期影响却不显著。(3)地方经济增长水平对耕地占补平衡交易的降债效应存在异质性影响,经济增长处于中等水平时,出让用地指标能够最大化降低政府债务规模,而购买用地指标则会增加政府债务规模;经济增长处于低阶水平和高阶水平时,耕地占补平衡有利于降低交易双方债务规模。研究结论:耕地占补平衡交易要摆脱土地财政依赖,应通过优化土地资源的空间配置效率扩大边际收益,合理控制地方政府债务风险。The purpose of this study is to reveal the bilateral impact mechanism of transactions of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation on local government debts in the context of land finance,to provide bilateral experiential insights and systematic research references for the scientific implementation of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation,as well as for effectively alleviating local government debt pressures.The research method of econometric model is used.The results show that:1)from the linear perspective,there are bilateral differences in the impact of transactions of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation on local government debt scale,as selling land quotas can reduce the scale of local government debt significantly,while buying land quotas has no significant impact.2)From the non-linear perspective,the debt reduction effect of selling land quotas follows a marginally decreasing pattern.Buying land quotas increases local government debt in the initial stage significantly,but it becomes insignificant in later stages.3)The level of local economic development has a heterogeneous impact on the debt-reducing effect of the transactions of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation.When the economic development level is at the middle level,selling land quotas could maximize the reduction of local government debt and buying land quotas increases local government debt.When economic development is at a low or a high level,transactions of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation helps reduce the government debt of both transaction parties.In conclusion,transactions of balancing cultivated land occupation and reclamation should get rid of the dependence on land finance,and expand marginal revenue via optimizing the spatial configuration efficiency of land,to control the local government debt risk reasonably.

关 键 词：土地财政 耕地占补平衡 指标交易 地方政府债务 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济] F812.7