人工智能供给约束、技术异质性与国际比较优势  

Supply Constraints of Artificial Intelligence,Technological Heterogeneity and International Comparative Advantage

作　　者：夏晓华 陈哲昂[2] 巫佳潞 XIA Xiao-hua;CHEN Zhe-ang;WU Jia-lu(Institute of China’s Economic Reform and Development,Renmin University of China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第9期5-23,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球能源金融风险网络溢出下的产业链韧性:结构动态、评估体系与稳定政策”(批准号72273143);国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际分工重构下全球技术扩散的生态环境效应及其系统治理研究”(批准号71974192)。

摘　　要：厘清人工智能供给约束如何重塑全球生产模式与产业结构,是理解人工智能技术对全球产业竞争格局影响的关键。本文通过构建包含人工智能因素的全球多部门投入产出模型,分析了全球人工智能投入如何作用于产业国际比较优势,着重探讨供给约束下人工智能投入的非线性影响。进一步,基于2011—2020年亚洲开发银行发布的多区域投入产出表(ADB-MRIO)以及全球人工智能投入数据,本文评估了人工智能投入在全球产业中的异质性影响。研究发现,人工智能投入对产业国际比较优势的影响存在倒U型关系,人工智能的供给约束是引致上述现象的关键原因。从异质性角度看,劳动密集型部门和低创新国家更容易出现倒U型关系,进而影响人工智能技术对产业国际比较优势的作用。研究还发现,要素成本、增加值率和中间品需求是引致上述倒U型关系的重要机制,人工智能资本存量的上升则会缓解产业国际比较优势的下降,这进一步印证了人工智能的供给约束的作用。上述研究结论表明,合理的人工智能投入规模需要充分考虑生产部门的要素结构特征、人工智能供给约束、全球投入产出网络等因素。这一发现对于促进中国在新一轮科技革命中合理规划人工智能产业发展具有重要的参考价值。Artificial intelligence(AI)technology is reshaping global production networks and international industrial comparative advantages,emerging as a crucial force in altering global industrial competitiveness.However,the total supply of AI capital is currently constrained and continuously increasing investment in AI capital leads to price hikes,subsequently raising factor costs.Given the supply constraint of AI,does the investment in AI technology enhance the international comparative advantages of various sectors?This paper constructs a theoretical model based on the global multi-sector input-output production network relationship,incorporating the spillover effects of intermediate goods in the industrial chain.It proves how the supply constraints of AI affect the relationship between AI input and industrial comparative advantages.With AI as a production factor,the assumption of technological homogeneity is relaxed to capture differences in the utilization of AI technologies across industries,enriching research in the areas of AI investment and production automation.Furthermore,using the data from 15 industries in 44 countries from 2011 to 2020,this paper empirically proves the conclusion of the theoretical model.The impact of AI investment on the international comparative advantages of industries presents an inverted U-shaped relationship.When the capital cost of AI is low,automating more production tasks can reduce costs and enhance international comparative advantages in industries.In the context of constrained AI capital supply,excessive investment in AI may elevate capital costs,thereby undermining industrial comparative advantages.Heterogeneity analysis shows that laborintensive industries,low-innovation countries,and developing countries exhibit a more pronounced inverted U-shaped relationship.The mechanism test verifies that factor prices,value-added rates,and intermediate goods demand are the channels through which AI investment influences industrial comparative advantages.Finally,this paper confirms the exi

关 键 词：人工智能 产业比较优势 技术异质性 多部门投入产出结构 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]