产业增长陷阱的测度与突破路径——基于生产网络与技术网络的产业增长理论  

The Measurement and Breakthrough Path of Industrial Growth Trap:Based on the Theory of Industrial Growth,Considering Production Network and Innovation Network

作　　者：郑江淮[1,2] 孙冬卿 叶明 ZHENG Jianghuai;SUN Dongqing;YE Ming(Yangtze River Delta Economic and Social Development Research Center,Nanjing University;School of Economics,Nanjing University;Yangtze River Industrial Economic Research Institute,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心 [2]南京大学经济学院 [3]南京大学长江产业经济研究院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第11期5-25,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD093);南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心和中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心联合专项重大研究课题(CYD2022006)的资助。

摘　　要：当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,中国要成功迈入高收入国家行列,就要避免因为产业增长乏力而陷入长期的增长困境。本文界定了产业增长陷阱的内涵与测度方法,构建了引入生产网络与技术网络的产业增长理论模型。研究发现,产业在技术网络中的高中心性有助于避免陷入增长陷阱,突破路径是提升产业增长潜力、抑制产业流出。具体而言,产业的长期增长速度取决于其在技术网络中的位置而非生产网络中的位置,技术网络位置是产业突破产业增长陷阱的关键。产业在生产网络中越重要,其在地区分布中越容易集聚,产业在技术网络中越重要,其在地区分布中越容易分散。基于文章结论,本文结合产业增长陷阱的测度方法与技术网络中心指数,将地区产业划分为陷阱型产业、边缘型产业、潜力型产业、警惕型产业与核心型产业,提出针对性的政策建议。本文不仅将产业的网络结构考虑在内,拓展了产业增长相关理论研究,而且为政府因地制宜推进产业升级转型提供可靠的政策参考。China has experienced four decades of rapid economic growth and is now at a critical stage of transitioning to a high-income country.From the practices of various countries,pursuing a“deep industrialization”path with high-end manufacturing as the leading industry is a key strategy for economies to break through the middle-income trap and achieve high-income status.However,with increasingly close inter-industry linkages in modern production,no industry can operate independently and is always part of a production chain with forward or backward linkages to other industries.Hence,incorporating the network structure of industries into studies of industrial growth is of practical significance.Therefore,given the network structure characteristics of industries,identifying regional industries that have fallen into growth traps or have development potential and exploring whether and which leading industries should be replaced at different development stages in China,will provide important theoretical guidance and support for local governments.This helps in coordinating the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries,the healthy and orderly development of strategic emerging industries,and the nurturing of future industries,thereby accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system.A review of existing literature reveals that most studies from a network perspective focus on how production networks transmit external shocks to industries and how inter-industry technology networks affect firm innovation capabilities.However,there is insufficient discussion on how the network characteristics of industries themselves impact their growth.Moreover,given the significant differences between production and technology networks,analyzing their relationship with industrial growth from a single network perspective has its limitations.Few studies have compared these two types of networks and incorporated both into a unified framework.This study introduces the concept of the industrial growth trap and provides a metri

关 键 词：产业增长陷阱 生产网络 技术网络 长三角地区 技术网络中心指数 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]