人口迁移与创业:外来人口的岗位创造效应  

Migration and Entrepreneurship:Job-creating Effects of Migrants

作　　者：唐为 毛凯林 朱瑞华 TANG Wei;MAO Kailin;ZHU Ruihua(School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第11期48-66,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72273086);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA790049)的资助。

摘　　要：现有研究主要强调作为“岗位竞争者”的外来人口对流入地劳动供给产生的影响,但较少关注其对当地劳动力需求端的积极作用,即通过促进新企业的创立而产生“岗位创造效应”。本文利用人口普查和工商企业注册数据,基于Bartik工具变量处理人口迁移的内生选址问题,实证分析人口迁移的创业促进效应。研究发现,城市外来人口占比的提升,推动了人均新增创业规模,进而推高了流入地的劳动力需求。机制分析表明,外来人口一方面利用个体企业家才能产生直接的创业提升效应,另一方面通过提升劳动力供给和本地不可贸易产品需求等产生了间接的创业促进效应。研究结果为党的二十届三中全会提出的完善就业优先政策提供了新的思路和证据。Migrants are the primary beneficiaries of urban employment expansion.Since the reform and opening-up,the scale of urban employment in China has continuously increased.The size of the migrant population and the number of new enterprises have experienced simultaneous rapid growth.Moreover,migrants are significant drivers of urban entrepreneurial vitality,which stimulates the expansion of urban employment demand.The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to improve employment-first policies and optimize the policy environment for entrepreneurship to promote employment.In the context of the downward pressure on economic and employment growth,understanding and leveraging the“job creation effect”of the migrant population and further opening up to drive innovation and entrepreneurship are key directions for addressing current employment issues.The existing literature often views the migrant population as“job competitors,”with less discussion on the entrepreneurial and job creation effects of population migration,ignoring the fact that in the era of mass innovation and entrepreneurship,the role of the urban migrant population has far surpassed merely being job competitors.Population migration not only increases the labor supply in the destination areas but also boosts labor demand by promoting entrepreneurial activities.Therefore,understanding the entrepreneurship promotion effect of population migration(i.e.,the role of migrants as“job creators”)not only helps us to comprehensively understand the economic and welfare effects of population migration but also provides new ideas for addressing current labor employment pressures.In empirical analysis,it is challenging to identify the causal effects of population migration on urban entrepreneurship.On the one hand,the spatial distribution of population migration is not random,and economic factors that attract individuals to specific cities,such as institutional environments and development potential

关 键 词：人口迁移 创业 就业 Bartik工具变量 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济]