全球贸易格局动态下多边贸易合作与中国制造业“稳链”——基于对中国制造业供应链生产风险来源的测算  

Multilateral Trade Cooperation and Stabilizing the Chain under the Global Trade Dynamics:Based on the Estimation of the Source of Supply Chain Risk of Production in China’s Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：祝嘉良 方颖 ZHU Jialiang;FANG Ying(Institute of Economics Research,School of Economics,Xiamen University;Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University;Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University;School of Economics,Xiamen University;Department of International Economics and Business,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院经济研究所 [2]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院 [3]计量经济学教育部重点实验室(厦门大学) [4]厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第11期89-111,共23页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(72133004);福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J01036)的资助。

摘　　要：随着中国在全球价值链中的深度融入以及全球贸易格局的不稳定性加剧,中国制造业如何应对供应链风险、实现“稳链”成为一个重要的现实问题。本文利用OECD数据库1995~2018年投入产出数据,对中国制造业的供应链生产风险来源进行测算,并考察中国参与多边贸易合作对制造业“稳链”的作用。研究发现,来自采矿业与计算机、电子和光学设备行业的供应链生产风险是中国制造业的主要风险来源之一,对这两个重点部门中间品的国外依赖度过高也是中国制造业供应链生产风险的主要成因。通过分析这两个重点部门主要中间品来源国的销售风险及其与中国的政治关系,本文发现在当前的全球贸易格局动态下,加强金砖国家合作与RCEP构建是解决中国制造业“稳链”问题的理想选择。本文还从增加值视角对中国制造业的供应链生产风险进行再测算,发现增加值传递过程中的“中转国”同样可能造成“断链”的风险,这进一步强调了多边贸易合作的重要性,同时有效补充了现有的供应链风险评估框架。China has successfully integrated into the global value chain with a labor cost advantagesince its reform and opening-up. However, as the integration into the global value chain becomes moreprofound, the supply chain risk of production in China’s manufacturing industry may increase. The ThirdPlenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed that “China must effectively meet thechallenges of external risks, lead global governance, and actively create an advantageous externalenvironment.” How China’s manufacturing industry can deal with supply chain risks and“ stabilize thechain” has become an important practical issue and essential for developing new quality productive forces.From the view of the current global trade dynamics, the trend of anti-globalization, trade protectionism,and unilateralism has exacerbated the instability of the global supply chain. Based on this realistic background, this study aims to solve the following two problems: the first is to measure the primarysources of risk in China’s manufacturing industry in the supply chain and clarify the possible“ chainbreaking”risks. The second is to find ideal solutions to deal with the supply chain risk based on theprimary sources of risk in China’s manufacturing industry.This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the supply chain risk in China’s manufacturingindustry using the input-output data of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’sdatabase from 1995 to 2018. It examines the effect of China’s participation in multilateral tradecooperation on “stabilizing the chain.” The main conclusions of this study are as follows: First, byexpanding the existing framework of supply chain risk measurement, it finds that the risk from the“mining and quarrying” sector and the“ computer, electronic and optical equipment” sector are the mainrisks in China’s manufacturing industry, and the excessive foreign dependence on intermediate productsin these two key sectors is the leading cause. Second,

关 键 词：供应链生产风险 制造业稳链 多边贸易合作 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]