我国政府债务的跨周期平衡治理——兼论政府债务短期逆周期调控与长期可持续性研究  

Balanced Governance of China's Government Debt:Short-Term Countercyclical Regulation and Long-Term Sustainability

作　　者：金春雨[1,2] 孙玉娇[2] Jin Chunyu;Sun Yujiao(Center for Quantitative Economics of Jilin University,Changchun;Business and Management College,Jilin University,Changchun)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2024年第5期54-63,103,共11页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“经济下行压力下的稳增长防滞胀研究”(项目编号:22AJL016)。

摘　　要：文章构建了政府债务对经济增长作用机制的理论框架,以经济波动为内生条件变量构建Self-Exciting IVAR模型,实证检验了政府债务在经济周期不同阶段下对经济增长的非对称效应。研究发现,经济衰退期政府债务对经济增长的冲击效应在短期内大于经济扩张期,中长期政府债务的经济增长效应在经济扩张期强于衰退期,经济衰退期可以适度扩大政府债务规模,提高其短期逆周期调控效应,经济扩张期应稳定政府债务杠杆保持其长期可持续性;进一步分析发现政府债务能够有效刺激投资、消费,进而拉动经济增长。文章为抵御经济下行压力,有效实施政府债务逆周期调控并保持其长期可持续性,实现逆周期与跨周期调控有效组合提供理论参考与经验证据。This article develops a theoretical framework to examine the relationship between government debt and economic growth,utilizing the Self-Exciting IVAR model with economic cycle fluctuations as endogenous conditional variables.It empirically tests the asymmetric effects of government debt on economic growth during different phases of the economic cycle.The research finds that the short-term impact of government debt on economic growth is greater during economic recessions than during periods of expansion.Conversely,the medium-and long-term effects of government debt on economic growth are stronger in times of expansion compared to recessions.During economic downturns,a moderate increase in government debt can enhance its short-term countercyclical regulation effects,while stabilizing the leverage of government debt is crucial for maintaining long-term sustainability during expansionary periods.Further analysis indicates that government debt effectively stimulates investment and consumption,thereby driving economic growth.This article provides theoretical insights and empirical evidence for resisting economic downturn pressures,implementing effective countercyclical regulation of government debt,and ensuring its long-term sustainability,ultimately achieving a harmonious balance between countercyclical and cross-cyclical regulation.

关 键 词：政府债务 经济增长 逆周期调控 可持续性 Self-Exciting IVAR模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]