“一带一路”陆路通道建设对中国农产品进口的影响——以中欧班列为例  

The Impact of Land Transportation Infrastructure on China’s Agricultural Imports under the Belt and Road Initiative:Evidence from the China-Europe Railway Express

作　　者：钱宸 钱静斐[1] 李先德[1] QIAN Chen;QIAN Jingfei;LI Xiande

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第10期21-37,共17页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程(编号:10-IAED-QT-01-2023,CAAS-CSAERD-202402,10-IAED-04-2024);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(编号:Y2023ZK04);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目“一带一路背景下研究中国和中亚农业合作的方式路径和策略”(编号:71961147001);国家社会科学基金重大项目“RCEP对中国农业高质量发展的影响与应对战略研究”(编号:21&ZD093)。

摘　　要：中欧班列是中国以基础设施建设助推高质量共建“一带一路”的示范样板。面对世纪疫情、海运通道拥堵等多重风险,以中欧班列为代表的陆路运输在保障“一带一路”沿线农业产业链供应链的稳定运行中发挥着不可或缺的作用。本文基于中欧班列开通通行情况和沿线国家农产品贸易现状,采用时变随机前沿引力模型分析我国与班列沿线各国的农产品贸易效率、贸易非效率程度及贸易潜力,以期为更好地利用“一带一路”的农产品市场和资源,保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给提供理论支撑。结果表明,中欧班列开通显著提升了中国与沿线国家的农产品进口效率。进一步地研究发现,中国与班列沿线的农产品贸易效率具有明显的国别差异,中国自俄罗斯、蒙古、荷兰等国进口效率较高;同时,中国与班列沿线国家的农产品贸易拓展空间较大,贸易潜力平均可拓展为实际进口额的2.32倍,其中,中国自乌克兰、德国、西班牙、法国和英国的进口空间较大。The China-Europe Railway Express serves as a demonstration model of China’s infrastructure construction in promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.In the face of multiple risks,such as the pandemic and disrupted maritime transportation,land transportation represented by the China-Europe Railway Express plays an essential role in ensuring the stable operation of the agricultural industry supply chain along the Belt and Road.Based on the operational status of the China-Europe Railway Express and the agricultural product trade statistics,this paper adopts a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the agricultural trade efficiency and trade potential between China and countries along the route.It is expected to provide theoretical and empirical support for China to better utilize the agricultural product market and resources along the Belt and Road and further ensure the stable supply of food and important agricultural products.The results show that the opening of the China-Europe Railway Express has significantly improved China’s import efficiency of agricultural product from countries along the route.Further research reveals that China’s agricultural product trade efficiencies across countries along the route has significant differences,with higher import efficiencies from countries such as Russia,Mongolia,and the Netherlands.At the same time,there is considerable room for expansion in agricultural product trade between China and countries along the route,with an average trade potential expandable to 2.32 times the actual import value,particularly for imports from Ukraine,Germany,Spain,France,and the United Kingdom.

关 键 词：中欧班列 陆路通道 设施联通 “一带一路” 农产品进口 

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