“一带一路”农产品贸易网络格局演化及影响机制研究  

The Pattern Evolution and Influencing Mechanism of Agricultural Trade Network in the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：胡求光[1] 马劲韬 过梦倩 王方 HU Qiuguang;MA Jintao;Guo Mengqian;WANG Fang

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,宁波315211 [2]宁波财经学院国际经济贸易学院,宁波315175 [3]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第10期38-54,共17页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国重点产业链供应链安全评估、韧性测度及监测预警研究”(编号:72373078)。

摘　　要：本文依托社会网络分析法和时序随机指数图模型,对“一带一路”国家农产品贸易网络演化特征及影响机制进行深入探讨。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”沿线各国农产品贸易联系逐渐深化、贸易网络不断织密,以中国为代表的“明星”国家,也因信息获取能力、资源控制权限和国际贸易效率,发挥日益重要的引领带动作用;(2)随着“一带一路”从愿景向现实转变,沿线各国农产品贸易联系渐趋紧密,但仍存在较大的优化提升空间,沿线广大发展中国家应在维护世界粮食安全和农业发展方面肩负更重要的责任;(3)“一带一路”农产品贸易网络关系的形成演化是内外机制共同作用的结果,内生机制包括互惠效应、传递效应、闭合效应及时间依赖效应,外生机制涵盖经济水平、地理距离和制度差异,忽略内生机制会导致实证结果存在偏差。为进一步巩固互利共赢的良好局面,第一,中国应与市场需求大、农业资源禀赋优越的沿线经济体开展全方位、深层次的沟通合作,在维持已有农产品贸易合作关系的基础上,进一步加强与发展中国家的网络联结;第二,中国应及时准确掌握沿线各国农产品需求、农业资源现状以及法律制度、税收政策、贸易壁垒等基本特征,推进区域农产品贸易合作战略的有效对接和良性互动;第三,中国应积极参与制定农产品国际贸易规则,并在推进“硬联通”与“软联通”互补增效的同时,与沿线贸易伙伴搭建多层次多主体的对话平台和合作机制。This study relies on social network analysis and TERGM to conduct an in-depth exploration of the evolutionary characteristics and influencing mechanisms of agricultural trade networks among countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.The findings are as follows:(1)Agricultural trade connections among countries along the Belt and Road Initiative are gradually deepening,and the trade network is becoming increasingly dense.Leading countries like China are playing a more important role due to their information acquisition capabilities,resource control authority,and international trade efficiency.(2)As the Belt and Road Initiative transitions from vision to reality,agricultural trade connections among countries along the route are becoming closer,but there is still significant room for optimization and improvement.Developing countries along the Belt and Road Initiative should shoulder a greater responsibility in safeguarding global food security and promoting agricultural development.(3)The formation and evolution of agricultural trade relationships within the Belt and Road Initiative are the results of both internal and external mechanisms.Internal mechanisms include reciprocity effects,transmission effects,closure benefits,and time-dependent effects,while external mechanisms encompass economic levels,geographical distances,and institutional differences.Ignoring internal mechanisms may lead to biased empirical results.To further consolidate a mutually beneficial situation,it is recommended that:First,China should engage in comprehensive and in-depth communication and cooperation with economies along the route that have large market demands and superior agricultural resources.Second,China should timely and accurately grasp the agricultural product demands,current agricultural resource situations,legal systems,tax policies,and trade barriers of countries along the route,to advance effective coordination of regional agricultural trade cooperation strategies and positive interactions.Third,China should actively pa

关 键 词：一带一路 农产品贸易网络 社会网络分析 时序随机指数图模型 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F742