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作 者:杨攀峰 黄宁 程一步[1] Yang Panfeng;Huang Ning;Cheng Yibu(SINOPEC Economics&Development Research Institute Company Limited,China Petrochemical Consulting Company Limited,Beijing 100029,China)
机构地区:[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,中国石化咨询有限责任公司,北京100029
出 处:《当代石油石化》2024年第10期36-41,共6页Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
摘 要:随着绿色低碳发展理念在交通运输等领域日益受到重视,绿色甲醇逐渐引起关注,国内外能源企业正积极布局相关生产装置。绿色甲醇生产技术路线包括电甲醇、生物甲醇等,目前均处于工业化应用初期,比较优势仍需要探讨,从而使企业能够结合自身特点做出技术选择。利用多目标决策法,从原料可获性、技术成熟度、政策支持性、技术经济性、碳排放水平等多维度对各技术路线在2030年、2050年的发展前景进行比较。原料可获性始终是绿色甲醇技术选择中最受关注的问题,其次为技术成熟度。现阶段,电甲醇和生物甲醇仍需攻克技术难题,生物甲醇综合优势更强,但原料方面存在不确定性。未来,电甲醇发展更快,原料优势更加明显,到2050年将更具优势。As the low-carbon concept has received grown attention in various industries such as transportation,green methanol has gradually attracted attention,and energy companies at home and abroad have actively deployed related production devices.The green methanol production technology route includes electric methanol,biological methanol,etc.At present,each technology route is in the early stage of industrial application,and its comparative advantages still need to be studied,so that enterprises can make technical choices based on their own characteristics.In this paper,the multi-objective decision-making method is used to compare the development prospect of technical routes in 2030 and 2050 from the dimensions of raw material availability,technology maturity,policy support,technical economy,carbon emission level and so on.Raw material availability will be the most concerned issue in the selection of green methanol technology,followed by technology maturity.At the present stage,there are still technical problems to be solved in electro-methanol and bio-methanol.Bio-methanol has more advantages in general,but there are some uncertainties in raw materials.In the future,electro-methanol will develop faster,the advantages of raw materials will be more obvious,and it will have more advantages in 2050.
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