农村地区人口流动对生育意愿的影响:来自CGSS的微观证据  

The Impact of Population Mobility in Rural Areas on the Childbearing Willingness:Micro.evidence from CGSS

作　　者：段小力 刘昕 DUAN Xiaoli;LIU Xin(School of Economics and Management,Zhengzhou Normal University,Zhengzhou 450044,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州师范学院经济与管理学院,郑州450044

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第11期115-127,共13页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(20AJY013)。

摘　　要：随着人口老龄化的加速迫近,迫切需要从理论和实践中找到改善我国人口结构现状的实施路径,而加快提高我国适龄生育年龄阶段人群生育意愿的数量和质量是重要的落脚点和着力点.采用2013-2017年的CGSS调查数据,通过理论定性分析和IV定量回归实证分析,考察了农村地区人口流动对生育意愿的影响.研究发现,相较于城市地区,农村地区流动人口生育意愿有明显下降.因此提出:提高农村地区流动人口适龄生育年龄阶段人群的生育意愿,全面放开户籍制度;加大对农业的补贴力度,完善收入分配机制,扩大中等收入水平,加强义务教育的宣传和普及,加大职业教育和成人教育的投入;提倡男女平等的生育理念和政策宣传;加大社会保险等促进农村地区人口流动的政策的覆盖层面.以此提升劳动人口的生育意愿.With the acceleration of population aging,it is urgent to find the implementation path of improving China's population structure status from the theory and practice,and accelerate the increase of the number and quality of the fertility of the population.This paper examines the impact of the population flow in rural areas on fertility desire.Using the 2013-2017 CGSS survey data,IV regression empirical methods were used to study the sum of the willingness of fertility.It is found that compared with urban areas,the fertility desire of migrating population in rural areas has decreased significantly.Therefore,the key task at this stage is how to improve the willingness of fertility in rural areas,fully liberalize the household registration system,increase the subsidy of agriculture,improve the income distribution mechanism,expand the level of medium.income class,strengthen the publicity and popularization of compulsory education,increase investment in vocational education and adult education,promote the concept and policy of equality between men and women,increase the coverage of social insurance to promote population mobility in rural areas,have become an urgent need to enhance the fertility desire of the working population.

关 键 词：农村地区 人口流动 生育意愿 

分 类 号：F320.2[经济管理—产业经济]