探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)在区域旅游经济差异性及对策制定中的应用研究  

An Application Study of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) in Regional Tourism Economic Differentiation and Policy Formulation

作　　者：李静[1] 马仪亮 LI Jing;MA Yiliang(Department of Tourism Management,Jinzhong University,Jinzhong Shanxi 030619,China;China Tourism Academy(Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism),Beijing 100005,China)

机构地区：[1]晋中学院旅游管理系,山西晋中030619 [2]中国旅游研究院(文化和旅游部数据中心),北京100005

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第11期128-137,共10页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家科技创新2030-“新一代人工智能”重大项目(2021ZD0111400);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2022YY178);晋中学院协同创新中心项目(jzxyxtcxzx2021025)。

摘　　要：随着区域旅游经济的加速发展,京津冀区域内旅游经济差异性问题变得越来越突出.旅游业作为当地经济的一个重要支柱,其协同发展的模式和效率直接关系到整个地区经济的平衡性和竞争力.为探究京津冀地区旅游经济发展的差异性,并以此为基础制定有效的发展策略,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法对2012-2022年的各市旅游总收入数据进行分析,揭示空间相关性和差异性.全局莫兰值从2012年的-0.035 3增长至2022年的0.004 3,显示出从低水平的空间离散性转向空间集聚性的趋势.局部空间自相关性分析指出:北京和廊坊地区表现出较大的空间离散性,而天津则显示出与邻近地区的强正相关性,意味着整个区域在旅游发展水平上的差异正逐步缩小.通过LISA集聚图进一步识别了不同地区的空间集聚模式,指出北京和天津的辐射作用正在逐步增强.研究建议地方政府根据空间结构演变的实际情况,制定差异化且协同的区域旅游经济发展策略,优化旅游增长极和整合资源,推动旅游业在整个京津冀区域的均衡发展.With the accelerated development of regional tourism economy,the disparity of tourism economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has become more and more prominent.Tourism,as an important pillar of the local economy,is directly related to the balance and competitiveness of the entire regional economy with its mode and efficiency of coordinated development.The purpose of this study is to explore the differences of tourism economic development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and to formulate effective development strategies on this basis.The ESDA method was used to analyze the total tourism revenue data of each city during 2012-2022 to reveal the spatial correlation and difference.The global Moran's I value increased from-0.035 3 in 2012 to 0.004 3 in 2022,showing a trend from low level of spatial dispersion to spatial agglomeration.According to the local spatial autocorrelation analysis,Beijing and Langfang showed a large spatial dispersion,while Tianjin showed a strong positive correlation with neighboring areas,which means that the difference in tourism development level of the whole region was gradually narrowing.The spatial agglomeration patterns of different regions were further identified by LISA agglomeration map,and it was pointed out that the radiation effect in Beijing and Tianjin was gradually increasing.The study suggests that local governments should formulate differentiated and coordinated regional tourism economic development strategies according to the actual situation of spatial structure evolution,optimize tourism growth poles and integrate resources,and promote the balanced development of tourism in the whole Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This study provides data support for reducing the economic differences of tourism development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and puts forward useful suggestions.

关 键 词：区域旅游发展 经济差异性 发展策略 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]