基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法的人群疏散中小群体影响因素研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors of Small Groups in Crowd Evacuation Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Method

作　　者：樊笑笑 毛占利 苏鑫 郭勇男 韩燕婷 FAN Xiaoxiao;MAO Zhanli;SU Xin;GUO Yongnan;HAN Yanting(School of Fire Protection Engineering,China People's Police University,Langfang Hebei 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学防火工程学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《安全》2024年第10期88-96,共9页Safety & Security

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(G2021507001);中国人民警察大学项目(ZDZX202401,JDYP202409)。

摘　　要：为探究人群疏散中小群体多因素交互影响的问题,基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC方法对小群体影响因素进行分析。首先,梳理出小群体的影响因素,借助决策实验室方法(DEMATEL)得到直接影响矩阵,构造综合影响矩阵,确定各影响因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度、原因度;其次,利用解释结构模型法(ISM)确定各影响因素之间的关系,绘制可达矩阵,并将得到的结果进行层级分解,划分成表层、中间层和深层3个影响因素层级;最后,采用交叉影响矩阵乘法(MICMAC)划分各影响因素属性,分为自治要素、依赖要素、联系要素以及独立要素,然后验证分析小群体影响因素。研究结果表明:小群体各影响因素并非独立存在,而是相互关联、相互影响,其中,领导职务、群体规模大小对于人群疏散影响程度较大。该研究可为人群疏散中小群体模型的构建以及疏散管理提供理论基础。In order to explore the multi-factor interaction problem of small groups in the crowd evacuation,the small group influencing factors were analyzed based on the DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method.Firstly,the influencing factors of small groups were sorted out,and the direct influence matrix was obtained based on the DEMATEL model,and the comprehensive influence matrix was constructed to determine the influence degree,affected degree,centrality degree and cause degree of each influencing factors.Secondly,the ISM method was used to determine the relationship between the influencing factors,draw the reachable matrix,and decompose hierarchically the obtained results into three levels:surface,middle and deep.Finally,the MICMAC method was used to divide the attributes of each influencing factor into autonomous elements,dependent elements,contact elements and independent elements,and the influencing factors of small groups were further verified and analyzed.The results show that the influencing factors of small groups do not exist independently,but are interrelated and interact with each other.Among them,“leadership position”and“group size”have a greater impact on the crowd evacuation.This study can provide a theoretical basis for the small group model construction and the evacuation management.

关 键 词：小群体 影响因素 决策实验室方法(DEMATEL) 解释结构模型法(ISM) 交叉影响矩阵乘法(MICMAC) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]