乡村灾害脆弱性评价及影响因素——以河南省浚县为例  

Rural disaster vulnerability assessment and influencing factors analysis:A case study of Xun County,Henan Province

作　　者：李玉恒[1,2] 王晟业 黄惠倩 Li Yuheng;Wang Shengye;Huang Huiqian(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;University of College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第10期1818-1825,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171208)资助。

摘　　要：聚焦于乡村灾害脆弱性,以河南省浚县418个村庄或居委会为研究对象,从暴露度、敏感度和适应力3个维度,构建指标体系,综合评价了洪灾冲击下的乡村脆弱性。研究显示:①浚县乡村灾害脆弱性平均值为0.47(满分为1.00),处于中等偏下水平,灾害暴露度(0.72)和适应力(0.76)较高,敏感度(0.45)相对较低。各乡镇在灾害韧性表现上存在空间差异。②距离河道较近且地势低洼的地区一般具有更高的暴露度,相较于其他地区更早遭受洪水冲击,并倾向于面对更大的灾害损失。此时,灾前阶段具备良好的预警机制及预防性措施能够有效通过提高适应力降低乡村灾害脆弱性。③洪灾之初,民众由于灾情尚未威胁到人身安全时更倾向于保护个人财产,这体现为各乡镇了解应对措施的比重普遍高于实际听指挥的比重。此时,现场引导工作在遭受灾害冲击时具有不可替代的关键作用。文章基于上述研究结果提出了降低乡村灾害脆弱性、提升乡村灾害韧性能力的政策建议。Extreme disasters such as floods caused by climate change seriously affect the sustainable development of rural areas.This article focuses on the vulnerability of rural disasters,taking 418 villages or communities in Xun County,Henan Province as the research object.From three dimensions of exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability,an indicator system is constructed to comprehensively evaluate the vulnerability of rural areas under the impact of floods.Research shows that:1)The average vulnerability of rural disasters in Junxian County are 0.47(out of 1.00),which is at a lower than average level.The disaster exposure(0.72)and adaptability(0.76)are relatively high,while the sensitivity(0.45)is relatively low.There are spatial differences in disaster resilience performance among different townships.2)Areas closer to rivers and with low-lying terrain naturally have higher exposure levels,and are more likely to suffer from flood impacts earlier than other areas,and tend to face greater disaster losses.At this point,a good early warning mechanism and preventive measures in the pre disaster stage can effectively reduce the vulnerability of rural disasters by improving adaptability.3)When a flood occurs,the public is more inclined to protect personal property before the disaster poses a threat to personal safety.This is reflected in the fact that the proportion of understanding and responding measures in each township is generally higher than the proportion of actually following orders.At this point,on-site guidance plays an irreplaceable key role in the face of disaster impacts.Based on the above research results,the article proposes policy recommendations to reduce rural disaster vulnerability and enhance rural disaster resilience.

关 键 词：灾害脆弱性 乡村系统 气候变化 洪涝灾害 可持续发展 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]