北京市健康产业的系统动力学仿真研究  

A System Dynamics Simulation Study on the Health Industry in Beijing

作　　者：李红梅[1] 张清秀 LI Hong-mei;ZHANG Qing-xiu(College of Science,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China;China Construction Bank,Beijing Branch,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学理学院,北京100144 [2]中国建设银行北京市分行,北京100053

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2024年第10期61-74,共14页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：北京市统计局招标课题(2020):北京市健康产业发展情况研究。

摘　　要：以北京市健康产业发展为研究对象,首先基于影响健康产业发展的三个子系统,即需求、供给与相关产业,分别绘制了子系统因果回路图、健康产业系统因果回路图。然后,根据北京市相关数据确定了变量之间的数学关系,构建了36个系统方程式.并基于方程关系生成系统存量流量图,构建了北京市健康产业的系统动力学模型.进一步,对模型进行了相关检验,并设定不同情景方案进行仿真模拟.模拟结果显示:对居民健康消费的政策引导、健康产业科研投入、健康产业人才投入、健康产业资金投入、卫生事业发展、信息业发展这六个因素对北京市健康产业发展都具有不同程度的促进作用.最后,依据仿真模拟结果,对北京市健康产业发展提出了相关的建议与对策.This article takes the development of Beijing's health industry as the research object.Firstly,based on the three subsystems that affect the development of health industry,namely demand,supply,and related industries,the cause-and-effect diagrams of the subsystems,and the cause-and-effect diagram of health industry system are drawn.Then,based on relevant data in Beijing,the mathematical relationships between variables are determined,36 system equations are constructed.A stock-and-flow chart is generated based on the equation relationships,and a system dynamics model for Beijing's health industry is constructed.Furthermore,relevant tests are conducted on the model,and simulation schemes are set for different scenarios.Simulation results show that six factors,including policy guidance on residents'health consumption,input in health industry research,input in health industry talent,input in health industry funds,development of health service,and development of information industry,all have varying degrees of promoting effects on Beijing's health industry.Finally,based on the simulation results,relevant suggestions and countermeasures are proposed for the development of the health industry in Beijing.

关 键 词：健康产业 系统动力学模型 存量流量图 仿真 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]