战略收益、融入程度与第三国制裁规避  

Strategic Benefits,Integration Level and Third-Party States’Sanctions-Busting Activities

作　　者：李潇 LI Xiao(School of International Relations and Public Affairs,Fudan University,Shanghai,200433)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2024年第6期96-123,154,155,共30页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：同样是第三国帮助被制裁国规避制裁的行为,为什么有的采取向被制裁国提供援助的直接策略,而有的选择与被制裁国深化贸易合作的间接策略?既有研究主要从国际制度、公共选择和联盟政治等视角分析第三国的行为逻辑,忽视了第三国对既有国际经济体系的融入程度的影响。基于经济制裁的第三国规避理论,本文提出,当制裁规避具有较高战略收益时,第三国对既有国际经济体系的融入程度会影响其制裁规避的策略选择。以2022年美俄制裁争端为例,对伊朗而言,帮助俄罗斯规避制裁具有较高的战略收益,且伊朗融入既有国际经济体系的程度较浅,这促使伊朗采取向俄罗斯提供军事援助的直接制裁规避。对印度而言,帮助俄罗斯规避制裁具有较高的战略收益,但印度融入既有国际经济体系的程度较深,这促使印度采取深化贸易合作的间接制裁规避。When facing profitable sanctions-busting scenarios,why do some third-party states directly choose the aid-based sanctions busting,while some prefer indirect trade-based sanctions busting?Existing studies have mainly analyzed the behavioral logic of third-party states from the perspectives of international institutions,public choices and alliance politics,ignoring their different integration levels into the international economic system,which constrains their policy autonomy in sanctions disputes.Based on the theory of economic sanctions busting,this paper further points out that when sanctions busting yields high strategic benefits,third-party states’integration level into the existing international economic system shapes their strategic choices of sanctions-busting activities.The 2022 US-Russia sanctions dispute is a case in point.On Iran’s part,the strategic benefits of busting US sanctions against Russia are relatively high,and its integration into the existing international economic system is relatively low,which prompts Iran to adopt a direct sanctions-busting strategy by providing military assistance to Russia,regardless of the secondary sanctions threat from the Western countries.As for India,helping Russia bust US sanctions is strategically profitable,but India’s high-level integration into the existing international economic system has made it adopt indirect trade-based sanctions busting.

关 键 词：制裁规避 战略收益 融入程度 俄乌冲突 次级制裁 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系] F113[政治法律—政治学]