宏观政策“三策合一”理论的政策协调思想及其对中国的启示:基于三种理论的对比  

The Policy Coordination Thought of the Macro-policy Trinity Theory and Its Enlightenment for China:Comparison Based on Three Theories

作　　者：陈小亮[1,2] 吴韬 Chen Xiaoliang;Wu Tao(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;Economic Research Journal;School of Economics,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]《经济研究》编辑部 [3]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2024年第5期95-112,共18页China Review of Political Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国特色宏观调控理论研究:规律总结、理论构建与实践应用”(批准号:72141306);国家自然科学基金专项项目“人口老龄化进程中的经济动态平衡与最优调控政策框架设计”(批准号:72342033);国家自然科学基金面上项目“人口老龄化对中国宏观政策有效性的影响:实证研究与模型仿真”(批准号:72073141);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目“中国宏观经济学的自主知识体系构建研究”(批准号:2023JZDZ025)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2008年全球金融危机之后,主要经济体的货币政策和财政政策空间大幅缩小。在此情形下,各界关于如何加强政策协调配合进行了一些有益探索,不仅改变了传统宏观政策理论对于政策协调配合的理解,而且形成或发展了现代货币理论和宏观政策“三策合一”理论。本文对这三种理论关于政策协调的主要思想与基本观点进行了系统梳理和对比。三种理论在主要目标、主要工具、核心机理以及可行性上均存在明显差异。总体来说,传统宏观政策理论和现代货币理论注重加强货币政策、财政政策和宏观审慎政策等稳定政策之间的协调配合,以实现经济稳定和金融稳定等短期稳定目标。与之不同,宏观政策“三策合一”理论不仅注重加强稳定政策之间的协调配合,还强调加强稳定政策与增长政策、结构政策之间的协调配合,以实现短期经济稳定、长期经济增长和经济结构优化三大目标。当前中国经济除了面临有效需求不足问题外,还存在增长动力不足和经济结构失衡等深层次问题。宏观政策“三策合一”理论对解决中国经济现实问题的适用性更强,可以为未来我国增强宏观政策取向一致性提供有益的参考。Since the global financial crisis in 2008,the monetary and fiscal policy space of major economies has significantly narrowed.In this context,people have conducted some beneficial explorations to strengthen policy coordination,which not only altered the traditional understanding of policy coordination in macro policy theories,but also gave rise to or developed two theories:modern monetary theory and the Macro-policy Trinity theory.This paper systematically reviews and compares the main ideas and basic viewpoints of the three theories regarding policy coordination.There are significant differences among the three theories in terms of main objectives,primary tools,core mechanisms,and feasibility.Overall,traditional Macro-policy theory and modern monetary theory focus on enhancing the coordination between stability policies such as monetary policy,fiscal policy,and macroprudential policy to achieve short-term stability goals such as economic stability and financial stability.In contrast,the Macro-policy trinity theory not only emphasizes enhancing coordination between stability policies,but also emphasizes the coordination between stability policies,growth policies,and structural policies,in order to achieve three categories of goals:short-term stability,long-term economic growth,and economic structure optimization.Currently,the Chinese economy faces not only the problem of insufficient effective demand but also deeper issues such as insufficient growth momentum and economic structural imbalance.The applicability of the Macro-policy Trinity theory to the real problems of the Chinese economy is stronger,providing decision-making reference for enhancing the macro policies orientation consistency in the future.

关 键 词：政策协调 现代货币理论 宏观政策“三策合一”理论 财政赤字货币化 宏观政策取向一致性 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]