2024年9月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,September 2024

作　　者：孙大鹏 秦颖[3] 白文清 刘凤凤[3] 牟笛[3] 黎丹[2] 周兴余[4] 孔庆福 施国庆[2] 向妮娟[2] 涂文校[2] 孟玲[2] Sun Dapeng;Qin Ying;Bai Wenqing;Liu Fengfeng;Mu Di;Li Dan;Zhou Xingyu;Kong Qingfu;Shi Guoqing;Xiang Nijuan;Tu Wenxiao;Meng Ling(China Field Epidemiology Training Program,Beijing 100050,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目,北京100050 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]四川省疾病预防控制中心,四川成都610041

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第9期1101-1104,共4页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的 评估2024年9月在我国(不含香港地区、澳门特别行政区和中国台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 2024年9月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较8月有所上升,以传染病类事件为主。近期我国境内新型冠状病毒感染疫情已达峰值并呈下降趋势,猴痘短期内仍将呈低水平传播态势,散在鼠疫、霍乱病例仍可能发生,登革热疫情已进入高峰季节;国外拉沙热和奥罗普切热疫情仍将持续,但输入我国并引起持续传播的风险低。结论 对新型冠状病毒感染、猴痘、鼠疫、霍乱、登革热、拉沙热和奥罗普切热等传染病予以关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong region and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province of China,the same below)in September 2024.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is anticipated that September 2024 would see a rise in the number of public health emergencies,with infectious disease incidents predominating.The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in China has reached its peak and is showing a downward trend.Mpox will continue to spread at a low level in the short term.The sporadic cases of plague and cholera would still be possible to occur.The dengue fever has entered its peak season.The lassa fever and oropuche fever would still prevail abroad,but the risk of importation into China and causing sustained transmission is relatively low.Conclusion Attention should be paid to COVID-19,mpox,plague,cholera,dengue fever,lassa fever,oropouche fever.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51