中国油气建设和油气消费与缺口的实证分析——兼论南海油气跨期开发资金需求的预测  

Empirical Analysis of China’s Oil and Gas Construction,Consumption,and Gap-Also on the Forecast of Capital Demand for Oil and Gas Intertemporal Development in the South China Sea

作　　者：刘翔宇[1] 刘静暖 Liu Xiangyu;Liu Jingnuan(Saxo Fintech Business School,Sanya College)

机构地区：[1]三亚学院

出　　处：《调研世界》2024年第11期70-83,共14页The World of Survey and Research

摘　　要：世界百年之未有大变局之下,夯实我国能源开发基础,保障能源安全至关重要。我国南海蕴藏着丰富的石油天然气资源,南海油气跨期开发有利于增加油气供给,保障能源安全。本文着眼油气建设,运用面板数据模型,实证分析了省域层面油气建设和油气消费及经济增长的相关关系;运用协整分析,揭示了全国层面油气建设和油气缺口既存在互补关系,又存在替代关系,指出替代关系威胁我国能源安全。基于南海油气跨期开发目标模型,构建了缺口—投资模型,预测了为实现南海油气跨期开发目标的国有经济石油和天然气开采业年度固定资产投资规模,进而探讨实现这一目标的财政金融支持机制,包括制定南海油气建设转移支付专项资金制度、创建针对南海资源勘探、开发的公司债和基金等。With the great changes in the world unseen in a century,it is vital to consolidate the foundation of China’s energy development and ensure energy security.The South China Sea is rich in oil and gas resources and is known as the second Persian Gulf.Therefore,the intertemporal development of oil and gas in the South China Sea is conducive to increasing oil and gas supply and ensuring energy security.Focusing on oil and gas construction,this paper uses a panel data model to empirically analyze the correlation between oil and gas construction,oil and gas consumption and economic growth at the provincial level.By using cointegration analysis,it is revealed that there is both complementary and substitution relationship between oil and gas construction and oil and gas gap at the national level,and it is pointed out that the substitution relationship threatens China’s energy security.Based on the inter-period oil and gas development target model in the South China Sea,a gap-investment model is constructed to predict the annual fixed asset investment scale of the state-owned oil and gas extraction industry in order to achieve the inter-period oil and gas development target in the South China Sea.Then a financial support mechanism to achieve this goal is investigated,which includes the formulation of a special fund system for transfer payments for oil and gas construction in the South China Sea,and the creation of corporate bonds and funds for resource exploration and development in the South China Sea.

关 键 词：中国南海 跨期开发 油气建设 资金需求 支持机制 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]