邻近性、技术关联与京津冀城市群产业结构路径演化  

Proximity,Technological Connectivity,and the Path Evolution of Industrial Structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomerations

作　　者：段娟[1] 文余源[2] 王少龙 DUAN Juan;WEN Yuyuan;WANG Shaolong(Institute of Contemporary China Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100009,China;Institute of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Collaborative Development Research,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Institute of Macroeconomics,National Development and Reform Commission,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院当代中国研究所,北京100009 [2]中国人民大学京津冀协同发展研究院,北京100872 [3]国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《经济与管理》2024年第6期9-19,共11页Economy and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72373151);国务院国资委2024年度“揭榜挂帅”研究课题(No.17);中国社会科学院习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心重点项目(2023XYZD01)。

摘　　要：演化经济地理学认为一个国家或地区的发展具有路径依赖效应。基于产品空间理论和方法,使用2003—2015年中国工业企业数据库的制造企业数据,对京津冀城市群产业技术关联进行研究,并佐以2016—2023年城市统计年鉴数据分析该地区二位代码行业结构演化特征。结果发现:(1)2003—2015年,该地区转化行业的技术关联度变化值大多是正数,说明这些转化行业与原有行业的技术关联度高,反映京津冀城市群经济结构演化具有路径依赖效应。(2)实证表明,2003—2015年间前后两个时段京津冀城市群整体发展受到技术关联的影响都为正向,且具有继承性和一贯性,体现了路径依赖特征,但各阶段区域内部呈现一定异质性,多数城市产业结构演化遵循路径依赖规律的同时,也有少数城市存在因政策等因素导致路径突破的情形。(3)2015—2022年的统计分析进一步佐证了京津冀各城市行业结构演化受原有优势和路径依赖影响和约束的论断。Evolutionary economic geography holds that the development of a country or region is constrained by its prior factors,resul-ting in path-dependence effects.This article is based on the theory and methods of product space,using manufacturing enterprise data from the China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2003 to 2015,to study the industrial technology correlation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations,to determine whether its development is limited and affected by its original industries,and whether there is a breakthrough path for development.The results showed that:(1)From 2003 to 2015,the changes in the technological correlation between the transformed industries in the region were mostly positive,indicating a high degree of technological correlation between these transformed industries and their original industries,reflecting the path dependence effect of the economic structure evolution of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations;(2)Empirical evidence shows that the overall development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations was positively influenced by technological linkages during the two periods of 2003-2008 and 2009-2015,with inheritance and inertia,reflecting path dependence characteristics.However,there is also a certain heterogeneity within each stage of the region.While most cities'industrial structure evolution follows the path dependence law,there are also a few cities that have experienced path breakthroughs due to policy and other factors.(3)The statistical analysis for 2015-2022 further confirms the assertion that the evolution of industry structure in various cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is influenced and constrained by existing advantages and path dependence.The above findings have certain decision-making implications for the future economic struc-tural transformation and evolution path selection of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations.

关 键 词：产品空间 邻近性 技术关联 京津冀城市群 路径依赖与突破 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]