多重不确定性条件下长三角地区多行业CCUS源汇匹配模型研究与应用  

Development of CCUS source-sink matching model for Yangtze River Delta under multiple uncertainties

作　　者：李吉喆 樊静丽[3] 李凯 王雅先 王智 张贤[2] LI Jizhe;FAN Jingli;LI Kai;WANG Yaxian;WANG Zhi;ZHANG Xian(Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084;The Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21,Beijing 100038;School of Energy and Mining Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084 [2]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100038 [3]中国矿业大学(北京)能源与矿业学院,北京100083

出　　处：《洁净煤技术》2024年第10期128-137,共10页Clean Coal Technology

基　　金：国家资助博士后研究人员计划资助项目(GZC20231327)。

摘　　要：随着“双碳”目标的提出,长三角地区面临一定的减排压力。合理布局规划碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS)项目对保障长三角地区能源安全,平稳实现区域“双碳”目标具有重要意义。CCUS技术的发展面临诸多不确定性因素,对CCUS未来时空部署形成巨大挑战。然而,现有CCUS源汇匹配研究多采用混合整数线性规划等方法,未充分考虑排放源、技术和政策等因素变化对CCUS减排潜力、宏观布局及成本效益的影响,导致规划结果与实际情况相比可能存在一定的偏差,给CCUS大规模部署带来较大挑战。为解决复杂不确定条件下CCUS源汇匹配问题,通过模糊可能性、随机机会约束和区间线性规划等方法,构建基于区间模糊机会约束规划方法的CCUS源汇匹配模型,应用在中国长三角地区CCUS源汇匹配的实际问题中,探究风险管理和决策支持方案。研究发现:若考虑不确定性,长三角地区CCUS项目总成本将高于确定性模型的评估结果;在违约风险为40%的情况下,长三角CCUS项目源汇匹配总成本最低,平准化减排成本低于30美元/t的排放源占筛选出排放源总数的38.5%,累计厂级碳捕集潜力56.9亿t。因此,将多重不确定性纳入模型综合考虑,探究不确定性条件下的CCUS源汇匹配部署方案,在提高项目经济性、可行性等方面具有重要的实际意义。Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,the Yangtze River Delta region faces emission reduction pressures.Deployment of Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)projects are crucial for ensuring energy security in the Yangtze River Delta region and achieving the net-zero ambition.CCUS projects faces multiple uncertainties.However,most of the previous research were focused on CCUS source-sink matching with mixed-integer linear programming method.Changes of emission sources,development of technologies and policies were ignored.This may lead to the deviations between the planning results and real-world case.Therefore,a CCUS sourcesink matching model was developed based on interval fuzzy chance-constrained programming methods under uncertainties.A Yangtze River Delta case study will be applied to explore risk management and policy-making decisions.Results show that,for Yangtze River Delta region,the total cost of CCUS projects will be higher than that of deterministic models;when the constraint-violation probability for reduction demands is 40%,the total cost of CCUS projects is the lowest,38.5%of plants have a levelized cost of emission reduction below 30$/t CO_(2),and the total mitigation potential will be 5.69 Gt CO_(2).Hence,exploring CCUS source-sink matching deployment plans under multiple uncertainties is critical for exploring the tradeoff of risks and benefits.

关 键 词：碳捕集利用与封存(CCUS) 长三角地区 模糊机会约束 源汇匹配 时空布局 风险管理 

分 类 号：X701[环境科学与工程—环境工程]