直接空气捕碳(DAC)的成本评估预测及其影响因素  

Assessment and prediction of cost for direct air capture(DAC)and its influencing factors

作　　者：周爱国[1] 余晓洁 贺红旭[3] 夏菖佑 孙雨萌 刘牧心 梁希 ZHOU Aiguo;YU Xiaojie;HE Hongxu;XIA Changyou;SUN Yumeng;LIU Muxin;LIANG Xi(China National Petroleum Corporation Science and Technology Association,Beijing 100007,China;Guangdong Southern Carbon Capture and Storage Industry Centre,Guangzhou 510530,China;China National Petroleum Corporation's Oil and Gas Climate Initiative(OGCI)Working Secretariat,Beijing 100007,China;University College London,London WC1E 6BT,United Kingdom)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气集团公司科学技术协会,北京100007 [2]广东南方碳捕集与封存产业中心,广东广州510530 [3]中国石油天然气集团公司油气行业气候倡议组织(OGCI)工作秘书处,北京100007 [4]伦敦大学学院,伦敦WCIE 6BT

出　　处：《洁净煤技术》2024年第10期185-197,共13页Clean Coal Technology

基　　金：中国石油天然集团有限公司科学研究与技术开发资助项目(2022DJ6607)。

摘　　要：直接空气捕碳技术能够从大气中直接捕获二氧化碳,是人类应对气候变化的重要手段。为了定量评估和预测中国DAC技术的成本,采用自上而下的工程经济分析方法构建了DAC成本分析及预测模型,并选取基于液体吸收工艺(L-DAC)和固体吸附工艺(S-DAC)的DAC技术,对不同规模情景、技术路径、能源类型下的DAC成本进行了研究。结果表明:未来的部署规模是影响DAC成本的关键因素。到2060年时,若中国DAC的CO_(2)捕集规模仅为0.3亿t/a,则L-DAC和S-DAC的CO_(2)去除成本将分别达到1037~1838元/t和869~922元/t;若部署规模达到3亿t/a,碳去除成本将分别降至729~1237元/t和543~580元/t;若部署规模达到6亿t/a,碳去除成本将进一步降至655~1102元/t和472~505元/t。能源相关的碳排放会降低DAC从空气中去除CO_(2)的效率,造成DAC碳去除成本上升。其中,当使用核电、光伏、风电和水电等非化石能源供能时,DAC碳去除成本在捕集成本的基础上略微增加;当使用电网或外购热供能时,DAC碳去除成本的增加较为明显。到2060年,使用光伏供能比其他供能方式更具成本优势。基于上述研究成果,建议尽早实施DAC技术的规模化示范工程,稳步扩大DAC应用规模,通过规模效应、工程优化降低DAC成本;建议DAC工厂因地制宜选择非化石能源供能,以降低碳去除成本。Direct air capture(DAC)technology,which captures carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere,is a crucial tool in combating climate change.To quantitatively assess and predict the cost of DAC technology in China,this paper employs a top-down engineering economic analysis approach to develop a DAC cost analysis and prediction model.The study examines two types of DAC technologies:liquid absorption DAC(L-DAC)and solid adsorption DAC(S-DAC).The costs of DAC under different scenarios of deployment scale,technological pathways,and energy types are investigated.The results indicate that the future deployment scale is a key factor influencing DAC costs.By 2060,if the DAC deployment in China is limited to 30 million tons of CO_(2)per year,the cost of carbon removal for L-DAC and S-DAC will range from 1037 to 1838 yuan/t and 869 to 922 yuan/t,respectively.If the deployment scale reaches 300 million tons of CO_(2)per year,the costs will decrease to 729-1237 yuan/t and 543-580 yuan/t,respectively.With a deployment scale of 600 million tons of CO_(2)per year,the costs will further drop to 655-1102 yuan/t and 472-505 yuan/t,respectively.Energy-related carbon emissions reduce the efficiency of CO_(2)removal from the air by DAC,leading to an increase in the carbon removal cost.When using non-fossil energy sources such as nuclear,photovoltaic,wind,and hydro power,the DAC carbon removal cost slightly increases over the capture cost;however,when using grid electricity or purchased heat,the increase is more significant.By 2060,photovoltaic energy supply presents a more cost-effective option compared to other energy sources.Based on these findings,it is recommended to implement large-scale DAC demonstration projects as soon as possible and gradually expand the application scale of DAC to reduce costs through economies of scale and engineering optimization.It is also advised that DAC plants select non-fossil energy sources according to local conditions to reduce carbon removal costs.

关 键 词：直接空气捕碳 成本 成本预测模型 DAC 

分 类 号：TK91[动力工程及工程热物理]