基于MaxEnt模型的重庆市茎瘤芥气候适宜性区划  

Climate Suitability Zoning of Stem Mustard in Chongqing Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：倪超 李新江 向涛 冉元波 栾松 郭志 NI Chao;LI Xin-jiang;XIANG Tao;RAN Yuan-bo;LUAN Song;GUO Zhi(Fuling Meteorological Bureau,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市涪陵区气象局,重庆401147

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第11期1349-1356,共8页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：重庆市科技计划项目“基于服务定制的智慧农业气象移动app的研制与应用示范”(cstc2017shms-xdny80035)。

摘　　要：利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS等方法,选择重庆市47个茎瘤芥实际种植点和20个环境影响因子,结合CMIP6的未来3种气候情景数据,预估2050s(2041-2060年)和2070s(2061-2080年)重庆市茎瘤芥的气候适宜区域,为重庆市茎瘤芥种植的规划布局提供科学参考。结果表明:MaxEnt模型对重庆市茎瘤芥的气候适宜性模拟效果较优,最湿月降水量(贡献率26.7%)、年平均降水量(22.3%)、海拔(19.6%)、最冷季平均温度(8.9%)、年平均温度(6.3%)和气温年较差(4.5%)为影响重庆市茎瘤芥种植区的6个主导因子,累计贡献率高达88.3%。各主导因子阈值分别为178~185mm、1170~1225mm、100~380m、7.8~9.0℃、17.5~18.6℃和27.6~28.6℃。1970-2000年当前气候下,重庆市茎瘤芥适宜区占总面积11.6%,其中高适宜区面积为1422km2,占总面积的1.7%,以涪陵、丰都、忠县为主。SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候情景下,21世纪50年代茎瘤芥适宜区面积占比分别为11.0%、11.4%和11.2%,70年代茎瘤芥高适宜区面积占比为10.8%、10.6%和9.6%。未来气候变化对茎瘤芥生长发育不利,为减少不利影响,应选择适宜区域种植。This paper utilized methods such as the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS,selected 47 actual planting points of Brassica juncea var.tumida and 20 environmental impact factors,and combined with the data of three future climate scenarios introduced by CMIP6 to predict the suitable climate areas of Brassica juncea var.tumida in Chongqing in the 2050s(2041−2060)and 2070s(2061−2080),providing a scientific reference for the planning and layout of Brassica juncea var.tumida planting in Chongqing.The results showed that the MaxEnt model provided excellent predictions.The cumulative contribution of dominant factors reached as high as 88.3%,including precipitation of the wettest month,annual precipitation,altitude,mean temperature of the coldest season,annual mean temperature and temperature annual range.The threshold of those factors was 178−185mm,1170−1225mm,100−380m,7.8−9.0℃,17.5−18.6℃and 27.6−28.6℃,respectively.Under current conditions,Brassica juncea var.tumida had 11.6%of the suitable areas,including 1422 km2 of the highly suitable area and 1.7%were in Fuling,Fengdu,and Zhongxian.Under the SSP1−2.6,SSP2−4.5 and SSP5−8.5 climate scenarios,in the 2050s the suitable areas amounted to 11.0%,11.4%and 11.2%,respectively,and in the 2070s the suitable areas amounted to 10.8%,10.6%and 9.6%.Future climate change will have adversely affect the planting and development of Brassica juncea var.tumida.To reduce these adverse effects,suitable planting areas should be selected.

关 键 词：茎瘤芥(Brassica juncea var.tumida) 最大熵模型 气候适宜性 CMIP6未来气候情景 

分 类 号：S637[农业科学—蔬菜学] S162.2[农业科学—园艺学]