枸杞种植用地发展对永久基本农田影响的风险模拟——以宁夏回族自治区中宁县为例  

Risk Simulation of Impact of Land Development for Lycium Barbarum Cultivation on Permanent Basic Farmland-A Case Study of Zhongning County,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

作　　者：张建海 姜昕彤 马国庆 舒瑞 梁哲玮 马孝林 李兆英 马玲 宋天健 童荣鑫 丁天姿 梁迅 关庆锋[2,3,5] Zhang Jianhai;Jiang Xintong;Ma Guoqing;Shu Rui;Liang Zhewei;Ma Xiaolin;Li Zhaoying;Ma Ling;Song Tianjian;Tong Rongxin;Ding Tianzi;Liang Xun;Guan Qingfeng(〔1.Ningxia Institute of Natural Resources Survey and Investigation,Ningxia Research Base of State Key Laboratory of Land Use,Yinchuan,Ningxia 756000,China;China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Technology Innovation Center for Intelligent Monitoring and Spatial Regulation of State Land Carbon Sinks,Ministry of Natural Resources,Wuhan,Hubei 430078,China;China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),School of Geography and Information Engineering,Wuhan,Hubei 430078,China;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Agricultural Survey and Design Institute,Yinchuan,Ningxia 756000,China;China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),National GIS Engineering Technology Research Center,Wuhan,Hubei 430078,China;China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),School of Future Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430078,China〕)

机构地区：[1]宁夏自然资源勘测调查院土地利用国家重点实验室宁夏科研基地,宁夏银川756000 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)自然资源部国土碳汇智能监测与空间调控工程技术创新中心,湖北武汉430078 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430078 [4]宁夏回族自治区农业勘查设计院,宁夏银川756000 [5]中国地质大学(武汉),国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430078 [6]中国地质大学(武汉)未来技术学院,湖北武汉430078

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2024年第5期162-172,共11页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区自然资源勘测调查院项目“宁夏回族自治区自然资源勘测调查院宁夏自然资源调查监测数据分析评价项目”(NSC-NZC-2022012);国家自然科学基金项目“基于残差分析的元胞自动机模型及土地利用变化机理挖掘研究”(42271437,42171466)。

摘　　要：[目的]科学预测宁夏回族自治区中宁县枸杞种植用地扩张带来的影响,为该区未来农业空间布局及特色产业种植发展提供科学指导。[方法]以中宁县为研究区,基于2005-2021年国土调查数据,结合耕地“进出平衡”政策,设置有无永久基本农田保护两个约束情景,并利用斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS)模拟了2025和2035年中宁县土地利用变化,探究了未来枸杞种植用地对永久基本农田的占用情况。[结果]到2035年,在有无永久基本农田约束两种情景下枸杞种植用地面积分别增长了59.81%和98.48%,且新增的枸杞大多在原来枸杞用地的周围,鸣沙镇和大战场镇的新增枸杞用地最多;另外,研究显示,在无永久基本农田约束情景下,2025和2035年永久基本农田面积分别被侵占1100.00和2386.67 hm^(2),其中中宁县中北部地区的永久基本农田被枸杞用地侵占的风险最高。[结论]有必要加强对高风险镇区枸杞种植发展的监管,并合理地规划现有和未来的“非粮化”种植用地,以更好地协调研究区的经济发展和永久基本农田保护,促进区域可持续农业的发展。[Objective]The impact of the expansion of Lycium barbarum planting land was predict scientifically in Zhongning County,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,in order to provide scientific and reliable suggestions for the future agricultural spatial layout and planting development of characteristic industries in the area.[Methods]Based on land survey data from 2005 to 2021 and considering the policy of“balancing in and out”of arable land,Zhongning County was taken as the research object and two constraint scenarios-one with and the other without the protection of permanent basic farmland-were set up.These were then used to simulate the future land use change of Zhongning County in 2025 and 2035 using the patch-generating land use simulation model(PLUS).Specifically,this model helped investigate the occupation of permanent basic farmland for L.barbarum cultivation in the future.[Results]According to the model,by 2035,under the with and without permanent basic farmland constraints scenarios,the area of land used for L.barbarum will grow by 59.81%and 98.48%,respectively.Most of the newly added L.chincnse will be around the original L.barbarum land,and the main townships with increased area will be concentrated in Mingsha Town and Dazhanchang Town.Moreover,the study showed that,under the scenario without permanent basic farmland constraints,the areas of permanent basic farmland in 2025 and 2035 will be encroached by 1,100.00 hm^(2)and 2,386.67 hm^(2),respectively,in which the risk of permanent basic farmland in the north-central region being encroached by L.barbarum land will be the highest.[Conclusion]It is therefore necessary to strengthen the regulation of the development of L.barbarum cultivation in high-risk townships and rationally plan existing and future land for“non-food”cultivation in order to coordinate the economic development of the area better with the protection of permanent basic farmland and promote the development of sustainable agriculture in the region.

关 键 词：进出平衡 永久基本农田 PLUS模型 枸杞种植 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：K9[历史地理—人文地理学] S5[农业科学—作物学]