杭州城西科创大走廊地表覆盖碳储量变化分析与情景预测  

Carbon Stock Change Analysis and Scenario Prediction on Land Cover of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor in Hangzhou City

作　　者：詹远增 马彦 王兴坤 冯存均 李佳鑫 徐盼 Zhan Yuanzeng;Ma Yan;Wang Xingkun;Feng Cunjun;Li Jiaxin;Xu Pan(Zhejiang Academy of Surveying and Mapping,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310001,China;Zhejiang Application Center of Nature Resources Satellite Technology,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310001,China;Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,MNR,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310001,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省测绘科学技术研究院,浙江杭州310001 [2]自然资源浙江省卫星应用技术中心,浙江杭州310001 [3]自然资源部地理国情监测重点实验室,浙江杭州310001

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2024年第5期369-381,共13页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室开放基金项目“基于高分卫星影像的地表覆盖变化碳汇监测研究”(KLSMNR-G202210)。

摘　　要：[目的]通过高分辨率遥感影像分析杭州城西科创大走廊的地表覆盖变化与碳储量变化,在“三区三线”成果约束下预测碳储量未来发展趋势,为城市新中心的国土空间优化和生态发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于2010,2015,2020,2023年4期地表覆盖数据,采用GeoSoS-FLUS模型模拟2035年自然发展、极限建设开发、极限农业生产、生态功能服务和城乡融合发展5种不同情景下的地表覆盖变化,并运用模型为框架计算2010-2023年和2023-2035年模拟情境下的碳储量变化情况。[结果]①2010-2023年城西科创大走廊呈现碳储量增长趋势,共计变化1720.69 t,其中植被碳储量约增加为913.67 t,土壤碳储量约增加566.18 t,水域碳储量约增加240.84 t;②耕地内部类型转变导致土壤碳储量减少119.33 t,林地内部类型转变导致的碳储量变化占总变化的39.50%;③自然增长情景及生态功能服务情景下,林地增长相对明显,极限建设开发情景、极限农业生产情景地表覆盖类型更为稳定,城乡融合发展情景下,通过耕地、林地、草地与其他地表覆盖类型的合理置换,其他地表覆盖类型获得了更大的发展空间;④2023-2035年,在自然增长情景下,碳储量将增加898.74 t,在极限建设开发情景下,碳储量将增加538.58 t,在极限农业生产情景下,碳储量将增加517.45 t,在生态功能服务情景下,碳储量将增加813.09 t,在城乡融合发展情景下,碳储量将增加356.91 t。[结论]在控制线的约束下进行发展可以有效地保障城市碳汇能力,合理的地表覆盖类型转变及内部结构调整可以为城市新中心发展提供进一步的空间。[Objective]The changes in land cover and carbon stock of the Hangzhou Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor through high-resolution remote sensing images were analyzed and the development trend of carbon stock under the constraints of the“three zones and three lines”achievements was predicted to provide scientific basis for the optimization of national land space and ecological development of new urban centers.[Methods]Based on four periods of land cover data from 2010,2015,2020,and 2023,the GeoSoS-FLUS model was used to simulate both past and future changes in land cover under five different scenarios:the natural growth,extreme construction and development,extreme agricultural production,ecological function services,and urban-rural integration development scenarios up to the year 2035.The model was used as a framework to calculate the changes in carbon stock under the simulated scenarios from 2010 to 2023 and from 2023 to 2035,respectively.[Results]①The carbon stock of Chengxi Sci-tech Innovation Corridor showed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2023,with a total change of 1720.69 t,where the carbon stock of vegetation,soil,and water increased to approximately 913.67 t,566.18 t,and 240.84 t,respectively.②The internal type transformation of cultivated land resulted in a decrease of 119.33 t in soil carbon stock,while the internal type transformation of forest land accounted for 39.50%of the total change in carbon stock.③In the natural growth and ecological function services scenarios,forest land growth was relatively significant,while in the extreme construction and development and extreme agricultural production scenarios,the land cover types were more stable.In the urban-rural integration development scenario,through reasonable replacement between cultivated land,forest land,grassland,and other land cover types,other land cover types obtained greater development space.④During 2023-2035,carbon stock will rise by 898.74 t under the natural growth scenario,538.58 t under the extreme construction and deve

关 键 词：遥感影像 地表覆盖 碳储量 GeoSoS-FLUS模型 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置] F301.2[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]