地震致人死亡评估中常用模型的应用效果研究  

Application Effect of Commonly Used Models in Earthquake-induced Death Assessment

作　　者：文鑫涛 张萌 李晓丽 徐志双 Wen Xintao;Zhang Meng;Li Xiaoli;Xu Zhishuang(China Earthquake Networks Center,Beijing 100045,China;Guizhou Earthquake Agency,Guiyang 550004,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震台网中心,北京100045 [2]贵州省地震局,贵阳550004

出　　处：《中国地震》2024年第3期662-668,共7页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：地震应急青年重点任务(CEAEDEM20240111)资助。

摘　　要：以2018-2022年发生在中国内地具有显著影响的38个真实震例为对象,采用三种地震致人死亡评估模型对各地震事件的死亡人数进行评估,并与真实的地震死亡人数进行对比;评估模型包括基于两种烈度估算模型和一种震害矩阵类模型。结果表明:对于本研究选取的近5年的震例中,基于房屋破坏情况估算模型的准确性最高;单纯基于人口密度的估算模型准确性次之,其在未造成人员死亡的地震中,评估结果偏差较大。This study examines 38 significant real-world earthquake events that occurred in the Chinese Mainland from 2018 to 2022,employing three distinct models to estimate the death toll associated with each event.These estimates are then compared against the actual fatalities to evaluate the models'accuracy.The models assessed include two intensity-based estimation models and one earthquake damage matrix model.The findings reveal that,among the cases reviewed,the earthquake damage matrix model demonstrates the highest precision in evaluating the number of deaths caused by earthquakes over the past five years.This underscores the importance of selecting the appropriate model based on the specific circumstances of an earthquake.Furthermore,the study highlights that the preconditions under which an earthquake results in fatalities are crucial for model selection.The post-earthquake evaluation is not a one-time task but an iterative process of refinement within a constrained timeframe.This continuous correction is essential for enhancing the accuracy and reliability of death toll assessments following earthquake events.

关 键 词：地震死亡人员评估 统计回归模型 震害矩阵模型 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]