基于改进的FAHP-熵权法组合赋权与可拓云模型的新能源消纳预警评估方法  

An early warning evaluation method for new energy consumption based on improved FAHP-entropy weight method combined weighting and extension cloud model

作　　者：张丽华 邢鹏翔 王传捷 包鹏宇 张天东 胡钋[3] ZHANG Lihua;XING Pengxiang;WANG Chuanjiel;BAO Pengyu;ZHANG Tiandong;HU Po(Economic and Technological Research Institute,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Zhengzhou 450052,China;Hubei Intelligent Cloud Network Dispatching and Operation Center,China Telecom Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430022,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,河南郑州450052 [2]中国电信股份有限公司湖北智能云网调度运营中心,湖北武汉430022 [3]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第10期1416-1423,共8页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(编号:51977160)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”政策的推动下,电网的新能源接入比例不断提高。为提高各地区的新能源消纳能力,需要分析新能源消纳的影响因素并进行综合量化评估。从新能源发展、地区的负荷预测、地区的供需关系以及电网的承载能力角度出发,构建了新能源消纳预警综合评价体系,并提出采用改进模糊层次分析法(fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,FAHP)-熵权法组合赋权与可拓云模型综合评价方法评估各个区域的新能源消纳能力。仿真结果表明,该方法使评价所得到的结果更加准确、合理。实例分析表明该新能源消纳预警综合评价体系和相关评价方法为河南省的地区新能源发展提供了参考。Driven by the"Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality"policy,the proportion of new energy connected to the power grid continues to increase.In order to improve the new energy consumption capacity in various regions,it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors of new energy consumption and conduct a comprehensive quantitative evaluation.From the perspectives of new energy development,regional load forecast,regional supply and demand relationship and the carrying capacity of power grid,a new energy consumption early warning comprehensive evaluation system is established,and an improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)-entropy weight method combined weighting and extension cloud model comprehensive evaluation method is proposed to evaluate the new energy consumption capacity of each region.The simulation results show that this method makes the evaluation results more accurate and reasonable.The case analysis shows that the new energy consumption early warning comprehensive evaluation system and related evaluation methods provide a reference for the regional development of new energy in Henan Province.

关 键 词：新能源消纳 模糊层次分析 云模型 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]