基于MaxEnt生态位模型的毛竹全球潜在适生区预测与分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Global Potential Suitable Areas for Phyllostachys edulis Based on MaxEnt Ecological Niche Model

作　　者：陈禹锦 于芬[1] 国春策 杨光耀[1] 张文根[1] Chen Yujin;Yu Fen;Guo Chunce;Yang Guangyao;Zhang Wengen(College of Forestry,Jiangxi Agricultural University/Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Improved Variety Breeding and Efficient Utilization of Native Tree Species,Nanchang 330045,China;Kunming Institute of Botany,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming 650201,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学林学院,江西乡土树种良种选育和高效利用江西省重点实验室,南昌330045 [2]中国科学院昆明植物研究所,昆明650201

出　　处：《世界竹藤通讯》2024年第5期47-58,共12页World Bamboo and Rattan

基　　金：国家林业和草原局科技发展中心项目(KJZXSA202027)。

摘　　要：为探究全球陆地范围内毛竹的潜在分布及在未来气候情景下的适生区动态变化情况并寻找对其分布起主导作用的环境变量,基于Arcmap软件和MaxEnt生态位模型,利用环境变量图层和毛竹分布数据研究了全球毛竹潜在适生区及其变化趋势。结果表明:(1)限制毛竹分布的主要环境变量为温度季节性变化标准差、最暖季度平均温度、年均降水量和最暖季度降水量,温度和降水变量是主导毛竹地理分布的主要环境变量;(2)当前时段毛竹的潜在适生区总面积为728.4万km^(2),主要分布在亚洲东南部和北美洲东南部,远大于现有栽种及引种范围;(3)在未来气候情景下,毛竹总适生区面积有所增加,不同等级适生区面积变化幅度较大,低适生区面积稳步增加,而高适生区面积有所缩减,而且毛竹潜在适生区域整体呈现从低纬度向高纬度地区迁移的变化趋势。该研究可为“一带一路”乃至全球毛竹种植、培育、引种区域的选择及毛竹入侵防治提供参考。To explore the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis in the global terrestrial area and the dynamic changes in its suitable habitats under future climate scenarios and to find the environmental variables that play a leading role in its distribution,this study analyzes the potential suitable areas of Ph.edulis across the globe and the variation trends using Arcmap,MaxEnt environmental niche model,environmental variables layers and the data of Ph.edulis distribution.The results indicate that:(1)The main environmental variables limiting the distribution of Ph.edulis are the temperature seasonality(standard deviation×100),the mean temperature of the warmest season,the annual precipitation and the precipitation of the warmest season.The variables of temperature and precipitation are the main environmental variables that dominate the geographical distribution of Ph.edulis;(2)Currently,the total potential suitable area of Ph.edulis is 7.284 million km^(2),mainly distributed in southeast Asia and southeast America,far exceeding the existing range of planting and introduction;and (3)Under the future climate scenarios,the total suitable area of Ph.edulis will increase,and the suitable bamboo growth area of different grades will change greatly,among which the areas of lowly suitable area will increase steadily while the areas of highly suitable area will decrease.Moreover,the potential suitable areas of Ph.edulis shows an overall trend of migration from low latitudes to high latitudes.This study would provide references for the planting,cultivation and introduction area selection of Ph.edulis,as well as for preventing and controlling the invasion of Ph.edulis along the“Belt and Road”Initiative and even across the world.

关 键 词：竹亚科 毛竹 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 气候变化 

分 类 号：S795.7[农业科学—林木遗传育种]