私有信息、突然袭击与战争爆发--以巴以冲突和乌克兰危机为例  

Private Information,Surprise Attack,and the Causes of War:The Cases of the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict and the Ukraine Crisis

作　　者：韩萧 汪瑾卉 HAN Xiao;WANG Jinhui

机构地区：[1]上海大学全球问题研究院,上海200444

出　　处：《国际展望》2024年第6期137-158,163,共23页Global Review

摘　　要：借助战争研究中的议价理论和突然袭击理论,以博弈中的信息和情报因素为焦点,系统分析巴以冲突和乌克兰危机爆发的原因,有助于在理论和现实层面加深对战争爆发问题的理解。战争的议价理论认为,与行为体自身军事实力和作战意愿相关的信息是私有信息,而行为体存在错误呈现私有信息的动机,这导致各行为体在互动中始终怀疑对方会错误呈现私有信息,这是导致战争爆发的原因之一。在巴以冲突和乌克兰危机中,哈马斯和俄罗斯都曾试图展示自己的军事实力和作战意愿,希望迫使以色列和乌克兰改变立场,但并未奏效。两场危机同时显示出私有信息并不完全“私有”,以色列和乌克兰在冲突爆发前获取的信息足以预示冲突即将发生,但这并未阻止冲突的最终爆发。国际环境中的噪声、情报机制的内在缺陷、错误认知和防御方的反制行动困境等因素,是造成行为体信息和情报分析错误的重要原因。研究结果显示,冲突双方在研判对手的能力和意图时会面临信息和情报分析能力不足的问题,这一约束因素对于理解冲突爆发具有重要意义。By applying bargaining theory and the theory of surprise attacks from the study of warfare,the paper analyzes the factors that led to the outbreaks of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Ukraine crisis,with a focus on the roles of information and intelligence.This approach enhances our understanding of the complexities surrounding the onset of war,both theoretically and in practical terms.Bargaining theory suggests that a state's military capabilities and willingness to engage in combat are considered private information.Additionally,states often have incentives to misrepresent this information,leading to mutual suspicion in their interactions.This dynamic can be a significant catalyst for conflict.In both the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Ukraine crisis,Hamas and Russia sought to demonstrate their military strength and resolve in hopes of compelling Israel and Ukraine to change their positions,yet these attempts ultimately fell short.Moreover,both crises illustrate that private information is not entirely“private”Intelligence available to Israel and Ukraine before the conflicts indicated that hostilities were likely,but this awareness did not prevent the wars from breaking out.Contributing factors include noise in the international environment,inherent flaws in intelligence mechanisms,misperceptions,and the difficulties faced by defensive actors in responding effectively to threats.The research reveals that both sides in a conflict encounter significant challenges when assessing each other's capabilities and intentions.Understanding these informational constraints is crucial to comprehending how and why conflicts escalate.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 巴以冲突 私有信息 突然袭击 武装冲突 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]